Some young Turks were talking rockets whilst I said slow burn. This is ridiculously slow. I figured 12c after Al2 and 20c after Al3. It’s not even explicable by low oil prices. I understand long delays in resource upgrades kill momentum but to have a drop in SP after a successful appraisal well and prior to a second highly probable success appraisal well is quite unexpected given the resource. I don’t believe downrampers have any impact but the market seems very risk averse. Even the folly of the Zapato timing seems tenuous as an explanation. I don’t see any short term fix. Al3 will take say 4 months and we have a further month before McDaniels reserve report upgrade on Al 2 results. I don’t see any serious relief until Al3 is a gusher and that looks like next year. The long delay in progressing Alameda is impacting SH.
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