Ann: Albemarle indicative proposal - due diligence to commence, page-330

Hi Gers
None of us can know what will happen, and my perspective is that the independent expert report findings are one part of the process not the be all and end all. What I think is that the bid price was at only around a 10% premium to the trading price over some months prior to the "best and final" bid. That to me seems a low premium and the average daily turnover through that period was way less than the average daily turnover since the bid was responded to by the BoD. It is interesting to compare the premium offered to Essential Metals Ltd (ESS) shareholders relative to the more recent trading range prior to the bid that was ultimately soundly rejected by its shareholders at the vote. (see the Scheme Booklet here)...

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ITMVz-9IDUKH3PbGDmNbWjsiQrBiu3QQ/view

It is true that the focus is on the share price leading up to the bid rather than subsequent trading. However, the shares trading in large volumes post a best and final offer suggests to an observer that the market valuation exceeds the bid price. Why otherwise would buyers pay extra only to have their shares claimed under the scheme and receive a discount to their recent purchase price? An expert would have to address that.

In the final analysis even if the independent expert finds the bid is fair and reasonable, it still comes down to a vote. We have Hancock Prospecting implying they will vote against and presumably any institutional buyers in recent days that paid a preioum to the offer price will do the same. Add that to activist retail shareholders on here and I expect there will be well and truly sufficient opposition to reach 25% of the shares actually voted. I said in an earlier post that even with the holding of Mineral Resources, the ESS Scheme proposal was soundly defeated when voted upon.

Maybe you can counter with your reasons why it indeed is likely to succeed?

regards
DF