As you say, the chart is indeed representing the sentimental view of the market toward the company, and no, that's not the same thing as the fundamentals at all, so no, the chart doesn't match the fundamentals.
The fundamentals really aren't that bad. The fundamental value of the company doesn't fluctuate with the Chinese spot price, but that is influencing the share price. If you think it does influence the actual value, hey, I think most of us would agree the lithium spot price is low at this time and will be higher in 6-12 months, so by that reasoning it would be a great time to buy.
Looking at the company-specific fundamentals, the commissioning is progressing well, we're making tangible progress (yes, we had a filtration issue but we also saw the highest rate of production yet and production rate continues on an upward trend). Permits haven't come yet but most including myself assume it's overwhelmingly most likely we'll be approved rather than declined. Resource upgrade took longer than expected but the hard part is now actually finished and we just need to wait for the analysis.
The fundamentals are great! They definitely don't match the chart (which is outright hideous).
Let's look at the sentiment. It's in the toilet. Why? Expectations on time frames were hideously mismanaged. I largely blame management but to be fair, they were doing what many shareholders were begging for. 'Give us and update!' they begged. 'Give the market some announcement to boost the share price' they cried, etc. I don't for a moment condone management playing that game, but they did, they dangled the carrot an apparently imminent distance away etc, we all know the story. Now, despite the delays mostly being either out of their control (eg permits) or completely understandable (eg commissioning), because they shamefully promised unrealistic time frames, sentiment is now hideous. The assumption is almost that nothing will ever happen, right when things actually are imminent (probably within 3-4 months or so).
We're now actually at the stage the market was fooled into thinking we were at back when the share price was 80c! The spot price is the main fundamental difference, but that is just a spot price, not a long term average price, so it also only impacts sentiment rather than value. If you think the spot price genuinely determines our share price, great! By that metric too, now would seem to be a brilliant time to be holding, assuming you believe the spot price is currently at a low.
This is a classic case of sentiment and thus share price being lower than value scenario. Value won't much change in the next six months, but sentiment will drastically improve with permits, resource upgrade and production. Value will be apparent rather than assumed to be absent, and the share price/chart will rally. The next two or three months might be ugly, but the rewards will be sweet.
Expand
(20min delay)