There's 17 trillion in passive assets under management at blackrock + vanguard and most active managers have rejected PTM's "dogmatic" focus on price and value for the seductive returns achieved from speculating on price appreciation.
The last 5 years of underperformance would try anyone's patience, I don't blame clients for redeeming at all the company should do better.
At the same time on the other side of this event a lot of managers will be impaired and the few active managers that aren't will be in a spectacular position.
When you consider the overall market the idea that PTM should only have $16bn of AUM is a bit ridiculous, there is a much greater demand than that. They should earn their fee by doing well for clients not in a race to the bottom by cutting them.
Of course it's very different to RIG but the pattern is the same, a declining business with a pretty extreme level of pessimism as to it's future near a cyclical turning point. The only important questions are is it a viable business model and can it survive through the tough period and I think the answer to both is yes.
People find it very hard to shift gears, that applies to permabears AND permabulls - to realise that the present contains a lot of information to indicate that the future will not be like the past.
So then for people willing to wait two or three years there's a lot of upside as the so-called "smart" institutional money comes fleeing back to chase performance again.
Maybe that's a little wee fib from Ben who was running 180% gross in 1929, compare that to the Platinum International Fund which is presently 100% gross 90% long, 10% short and 20% cash. The focus is capital preservation not shooting the lights out.
The Bear Market rally of 1930 is similar to the bear market rally of 2023 so far in my opinion, it's much easier to bounce back if you are not impaired on the way up or the way down. I am not predicting such a severe economic outcome because we won't allow the fractional reserve banks to fail.
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