Based on the FY23 overheads with 5% inflation & achieving a GM of 12%, HMI needs to generate approx $29.6m (+42%, +$7.4m) of Revenue in FY24 to reach EBITDA breakeven.
Which sounds a lot, but when you break it down it's actually a real possibility.
Q1 $7.0m +12% +$745k
Q2 $6.6m -5% -$350k (weak qtr due to Christmas)
Q3 $7.5m +13% +$850k
Q4 $8.5m +13% +982k
Especially when you consider Q4 FY23 increased 22% ($1.1m) on Q3.
The above excludes any potential AI revenue.
Assuming HMI don't have any customer defaults, I believe FY24 will be a breakout year for HMI & it should get re-rated.
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