Looks like I am not the only one which considers the current P/E a joke!
Deutsche Bank have reiterated their $6.20AUD price target for MML.
Reserve replacement continues but only known mine life paid for.
Medusa mining has updated its gold reserves; it has once again replaced the mined ounces through the year. The reserves are 505koz @ 10.7g/t. We are of the view that the Co-O mine will ultimately have a 30-year life but expect that at any given time there will only be about five years of reserves delineated. This is due to the narrow vein, high-grade nature of the epithermal deposit. It is impracticable to bring the whole system into reserve status; the costs do so would be nearly as high as the US$190/oz mining costs.
Trading on ~5x PERs the market capitalisation is only reflecting the known mine life, not the potential mine life and apparently little of the exploration upside which includes other epithermal systems as well as goldcopper porphyries. With considerable upside to our $6.20/sh price target, which is set at our NPV, Buy.
The reserve is calculated using a gold price of US$900/oz. Arguably a higher price could be justified but it would not add a large number of ounces to the position. This is because the deposit contains minimal amounts of low-grade
material that would become reserves even at a higher gold price assumption.
We see a 30yr mine life at 100kozpa as entirely viable
The calculations that enabled our determination of a 30yr mine life are detailed in the table below. These are based on the drilling intercepts that have already defined 2km of strike and ore continuity past 500m depth. We have been to site and believe our interpretations of the deposit size are sufficiently conservative to warrant including them in our DCF. The outcome is 3.0Moz of mine output, or 30yrs at 100kozpa. Because we have captured much of the upside potential in our DCF, we do not apply a premium when
setting the target price.
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I would question their conservative forward production estimate at only 100koz pa and their low gold price - but their SP estimate of A$6.20 is close to what I would consider CURRENT fair value.
Only an opinion of course and obviously not shared by the market at the moment - but value will without eventually, so I can wait :-)
CPDLC
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