Ann: Rising oil prices - Hedging Update, page-30

I think you'll find many of the whiners and the whingers did exactly the same sort of research you have, if not better, the past few years, and came to similar conclusions. But despite periods of high oil prices, combined with a long list of management imcompetence, have only seen the share price falls.
I used to be called an 'apologist' for the company but as the weight of evidence accumulates that these guys are not up to the task, I had to change my mind.
So, I suggest to you that in addition to your basic fundamental analysis, you go back and check what has actually transpired with this company the last few years, contrasting what management said with what actually happened.
You may have gotten lucky and picked the bottom. Also, fundamental analysis of oil production and margins is important. But as they say, "know your history."