Deciphering Lynas, page-744

First in intra US Revenue is FOB sellers dock. The vast majority of international and EU sales Are FOB the buyers, Dock. Why would you use shipping volume?

This Explanation just does not hold up you were off by nearly 50 % If this much product was in transit, we should expect to see a large jump in revenue Q1. You do say this as well I just do not see it happening. .

With a 90 ~ 120 day book to bill delay Why can you not put out a guess now? I said Q1 will be 157 M (I should have rounded to 160, sorry) in post #: 69977068
I still stand by that as a good guess. Your 180 M is probably high we will just have to wait and see who is closer.

Where did your prices come from I have average NdPrO price for Q4 as 664 RMB / KG WV. Converting to AU$ =142 AUD Remove VAT = 125 AUD. what I do not understand is why you insist on AUD? Every place Lynas refers to REE price it is USD NV. why do you insist on using something that Lynas does not even use? on page 8 for Q4 report Lynas says the Q4 Average sell price was A$ 38.9. Down from A$48.3 Q3. I think that will come down to ~A$30.00. I use Volume for Q1 as being about the same so that is how I obtained my ~A$ 160 M. I actually expect REE volume to be down a little but I cannot prove it except with history. So I say it is unchanged. Also note that between SAR and AR Current inventories dropped. Many things go into this number including chemical and other supplies but the price of this stuff is going up, especially with the declining A$. I suggest you read note D2 in AR to find out more about this. JMO they now have limited inventory of NdPr to sell like they did in H2. Also, AL did not mention a Inventory buildup in Q4 or AR CC. Usually what is not said is more important than what is said. Look at chokedee comment below he is still talking about Inventory build up, it has not been mentioned for a while. and SAR and AR do not justify his statements.

Many people on this board like to point to the 1B cash on hand. Fact is I have already predicted it will go Down A$ 200~ 250M it is interesting that operationally it went down to $800M at end of Q4 it was only stock sales and loan forgiveness that kept it at 1 B. They may dilute all of us further in Q2 by selling more stock. To keep total over A$ 500M but how long can you use stock sales to boost operational cash flow?


will look at this again after Q1 CC. Maybe earlier if you bring it up.