LTR 3.89% 80.3¢ liontown resources limited

Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-34

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  1. 7,788 Posts.
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    "Why is she acquiring shares while talking down the project?"

    Lets think about this logically.

    Theory 1: She wants to buy shares cheaper.

    Possibly, but unlikely. If she was trying to scare monger, that's more likely to get shareholder support for a $3 bid. What's the point of her making a few cents on each share? Seems like an awful lot of effort and risk to try and get LTR holders to accept a $3 bid.

    Theory 2: She wants to crash the deal.

    But why would she buy at or near $3 to crash the share price? Could be a number of reasons.

    1. She wants to be like Chris Ellison - Get a board seat, help fund and deliver the project, which she of course gets paid for. Future processing is also done by her or some other entity which she has an interest in. Secure control of this strategic asset without taking it over completey.

    2. She wants to buy LTR - seems unlikely. She has had plenty of time to make a higher offer. And even now she could make a higher offer but hasn't. However, maybe she wants to crash the deal and come back in 6 months with a lower offer once LTR is in desperate need of funding. I think this is also unlikely.

    3. She has covered the downside by shorting - I have provided some evidence she is already doing this today. Therefore if she has covered her downside she could try to crash the deal to make another offer. Options become more open. If that crashing the deal fails she has lost nothing either way as she still owns the shares.

    Ultiamtely I think Gina is trying to crash the deal to do a CE. ALB aren't getting this deal through without Gina. Not a chance in hell.

 
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