The drop in price right after the FY23 announcement was I think caused by various factors:
1) SOL had a hard run recently and price out performed the index by quite a margin, so the market is obviously expecting not just good news but great news coming out. So the 20% increase in dividend wasn't good enough to please the market
2) BKW result disappointed with the building products section not able to pass on the cost fast enough to consumers, hence reflecting a lower than expect NPAT for that division
3) NHC and coal price is peak or has peaked and won't be such a cash cow anymore in the future
4) SOL was trading above NAV just before the announcement, hence a lot of expectations are priced in
I'm actually quite pleased with the result, a 20% increase in dividend is quite outstanding IMO, it is unusual for SOL to increase their regular dividend like this unless they're very confident of their investments/operations... there is no way they will want to cut their dividend, so they won't increase it this much if they dont see a positive future.
SOL has and will always trade at premium to their NAV, just look at their performance and ability to allocate capital, plus the ever increasing track record of delivering dividends...
I think the market is valuing BKW very wrong, it is not longer just a brick maker, even thought it bears that name. Majority of their operations/income now comes from investment or rental/development income and it is looking like that is the path they are taking to generate profits in the years to come. Over time, product manufacturing will become a smaller and smaller part of their portfolio, bear in mind that BKW is the only 2 brick manufacturer in Australia now, so they definitely commands a powerful position in pricing power. The Market still values BKW as a brick manufacturer and that is wrong.
Now back to Coal, there is no doubt that renewable energy will become the dominate energy source in the future and coal will cease to exist, there is no doubt about that. What is in doubt is when will that day come? 10 years ? 20 years or 50 years ? I truly believe that the world in entering into a new phase, left wing politics were in control for many years and always leaning towards renewables and globalisation, recently global events, especially CoVid and high interest rates has certainly change that, I think right wing will dominate in the years to come and there will be a de-globalisation happening and a reverse view on alternative energy. Coal will be back in favour and play a vital part as a strategic energy source for many countries, not just developing countries, but developed countries. In fact, Germany is already taking some of its wind turbines off and re-starting their coal fire plants. Coal price will stay high for longer than what many people expect it to be. NHC will deliver an endless flow of cash to SOL in the years to come.
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