Ann: Merger Presentation, page-286

Hi Hawk,

I follow the work and have complete trust in the TA skills of @Saragian who has been kind enough to post here a few times.
His last TMt post was [ this one ] back in July last year.
If you go to the charts there, you’ll see his summary was that TMT had been ‘range trading’ with a mid point of 37.5c since July 2020.
Coincidentally that’s almost the exact figure at which RCF invested $13.5m in August 2021.
(For TA sceptics there are a few other ‘tells’ in his charts that might seem uncannily correct.)

Anyway if the technical lines have changed since then, I don’t believe it is in a positive way Hawk.

—-
In looking at why RCF seems to consider the 12 for one deal fair, I also looked at the cost of one share at AVL in recent times.
To my untrained eye it looks like 3.6c was a pretty solid average and higher until the price started to strangely fall in the last couple of months.

Working off that estimate I consider it possible that AVL’s downward turn may have been manipulated in order to give a better starting point to TMT holders and to allow RCF to lower it’s average through the 2.6c credit raise.

12 shares at 3.6c each would give TMT holders a merger value of 43.2 c I think​

12 shares at 3.7c a value of about 44.4c​

12 shares in an AVL if it had been valued at 3.9c would mean TMT shares were valued at 46.8c.​

These factors together - the old charts here from a highly skilled technical analyst, and my own very rough figures and confirmation bias around the AVL price fall
(plus the RCF lead in this!)
mean I currently feel comfortable about the dozen for one offer and have been collecting a few more shares here to try to lower my average before the merger.


——

Removal of Board members;
Hawk I am attached to none of them.
Carmen Letton’s based over in Brisbane and was hired to the board just over a year ago with great credentials
[read about her on OroActive Invedtors]
I find it interesting that her linked in page makes the point:

“I am committed to exploring and developing strategic initiatives to find the highest asset / project value and most reward for shareholders. This has enriched my ability to embrace significant change and operational challenges. I have a focus on engaging and empowering teams to reach stretch targets”​

— Maybe she’s actually done what she was hired to do?

cheers