I have just finished listening to the whole 65min presentation on replay - wish I could have listened live and asked more questions.
Anyway, I was fairly happy with Dr Chris Burn's presentation on the whole. The are lots of positive catalysts in the future, and if most of these come true, then happy days for all of us investors.
The biggest disappointment is the timeframes. Though maybe not invested in NVX for as long as some of you here, I first bought in with the DPMG announcement in mid 2020, so have been around a fair while. The Samsung and Panasonic MOUs were a great win for the company, and sounds like they are still in negotiations with both companies. That's a hell of a long time to bring a contract to fruition! I understand the many delays through covid etc, but still seems like something not quite right. At least Chris didn't say they have walked away or anything, which would be a big negative.
Production timelines at Riverside are also progressing slower than initially planned. Still, with new technology this is to be expected, but can be frustrating. I am pleased with the results of the Gen 3 furnaces, and all looks good. Just slower than planned to get to mass production. At least seemingly all heading in the right direction. We just have to be patient, and not demand Chris' head every time the share price drops.
Cathode news is positive, but years off making the company some serious coin. Chris did mention the possibility of leasing IP on this, and may be the best short to medium term way to monetise the IP. I would prefer them to keep everything in house to maximse profits, but the capital needed and time needed to get this working seems difficult. I know the original idea was to get the anode profitiable, which would fund the cathode side of the business. With the delays in the anode business becoming profitiable, I see issues with cathode side scaling up before c.2027. Anode could be profitable in 2025, but paying for expanding anode further and then scaling cathode to mass production is difficult wiothout good financial backing. The DOE loan caters for some of this, but not all.
Ideas are good, technology is good, market should be huge, so still looking very positive long term for Novonix. Still, we have to wait out the stormy waters until graphite prices rise, tariffs are not waivered or a major tier 1 contract is signed to guarantee our future.
It's been hard to ride the wave up from 66cents in June 2020 up to $12 and back down again, especially with the amount of my hard earned in this company. I thought $12 was a big high at the time, and I think 71cents is a fair bit too low given the company's potential. To me the potential is more important than current book value. If NVX makes it to profitability, we will be back to $12 and beyond in a few years' time. Still, Mr Market currently sees otherwise. Hopefully Mr Market will agree with my expectations/valuation in the coming years and we'll all be happy.
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