XJO 0.88% 7,959.3 s&p/asx 200

Indices 2/10, page-292

  1. 9,947 Posts.
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    "orderflow, volume, fundamentals and earnings - these are the only things that matter to the market"

    Essentially correct.

    To the extent that all valuations are some form of (cash flow) / (discount rate),

    Fundamentals and earnings affect the numerator (cash flow) and affect the market structurally.

    All other factors (interest rates, volatility, risk premiums and whatnot) affect the denominator (discount rate) and can be filed under sentiment. They affect the market temporarily.

    Therefore, it is important to get the fundamentals (numerator) right, because the sentiment factors (denominator) typically mean-revert (though not in a predictable manner to allow consistent profitable trading)
 
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