I wouldn't outright say we won't produce anything from the 10,000TPA plant until 2026.
I certainly wouldn't claim we definitely will either, but it's too early to call for certain we won't.
We could potentially get the permit any time, and once we do the wheels will be in motion. Even you say we might begin construction in mid 2024 (which is optimistic but possible).
By the time construction starts, presumably we'll have the 2,00pTPA plant up and running, and certainly that will happen well before commissioning the 10,000TPA plant starts. Building something for the first time when you don't know how to do it takes time. Getting something working when you've never done it before takes time. The 10,000TPA plant will be following a proven recipe, not pioneering something new, playing around with trial and error etc. It'll happen much more smoothly, quickly and with a lower budget (adjusting for inflation etc) because we won't be inventing the thing, we'll just be doing what we know works.
By the time we have first product from the 10,000TPA plant we'll also already have established buyers, so we won't sit around stockpiling like we are now.
First product in 2026 is definitely doable. I expect we'll have the permit with plenty of time to build it and get into production by then, it'll just be a matter of how quickly we can get funding and get construction started.
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