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    These trials are not identical and will often test for different things. Phase 1 is typically focused on safety, phase 2 is typically a smaller sample size focused on efficacy (to test before spending big $$$) and phase 3 is a large sample size also testing for efficacy (more expensive)

    Probability of success does increase as you progress through the trials, particularly once you pass phase 2, but it definitely isn't a sure thing.
 
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