There are two reasons in my opinion:
1. Gina Rinehart does not have a history of cooperation...I said in a post some weeks ago, her approach is usually conquest. But on this occasion she will struggle to topple the hold of retail shareholders plus TG and the BoD.. however, if she can secure another decent chunk she will have more power and a platform to later take full control if there's an opportunity.
2. In a timing sense she may not have a better chance to get shareholders to sell to her. She will tell us all that she is doing us a favour by offering cash consideration well in excess of the prevailing market. The price would obviously rise, but there will be those tempted. If instead she waits the 4 months until she can avoid the regulation about "highest price paid at any time in the last 4 months" for a full bid, then there is a risk that the price will recover assuming the lithium spot market improves and we are getting close to production etc.
About when can she do it? Well any time that Hancock passes the 20% threshold they would be required to make a full bid...Such a bid would logically be an off market offer as they did with Warrego Energy. No one is obliged to sell, but many may be tempted after the current volatility is fresh in their memory. There are plenty of possibilities...some on these threads have mentioned the "creep provisions" which would not begin to apply for another 6 months on my reading.
I have no crystal ball so nobody should rely on my hunches. Please do your own research.
Regards
DF
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