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Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 4C Cash Flow Report, page-34

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    Agree im very curious what the $51m in backlog orders mean.

    As for Q4 results - given we were at $25m in cash receipts for end Q3 (inc $2.5m in grants) then for the month of October we must have had $22.7m in cash receipts as of 20 October for the statement "$48.2 million cash receipts YTD to 20 Oct 2023" to be true - Oleg says as much with $17.3m coming in Week 1 Oct. Further its' noted that $16m are remaining from the $33m sale. Now while our next milestone payment is in November, we have no indication if all $16m will be paid in Nov/Dec. Im really confused by these numbers because to have netted $22.7m since Q3 end seems like an absurdly high amount (nearly our YTD cash receipts). However, if we indeed take the $68m revenue projection (can't find the source atm) then i would expect $16m and a close of the $33m deal along with an addition $4m from various sales closing by EOY.

    I would take that $51m as being end of Q3 thus expect Q4 cash receipts of $43m and this leaves us with Q1 2024 onwards backlog of $8m. Ending 2023 with $68m in revenue is 4x 2022's results. The share price is reflective of how often small-caps are inefficiently priced. I appreciate the conservative view on future earnings (our big $33m, and 2x $11m anns account for $55m of the $68m projection (80%)).

    On our SP - historically our SP has flow on hype of big sales. Now we've seen them land there is an element of tempered caution - can they do it again? However, given we've gone from $5.6m (2020) to $10.6m (2021) to $16.89m (2022) to potentially $68m (2023) we can be more confident than historically about future sales. Will 2023 stand out as an exception with 2024 back down to $30-50m? Suppose that's what will cause some tempered caution, which to be fair is a welcome change from irrational exuberance.

    For expenses you noted $14m - I counted 1.2 alone and got to $16.9m - are you deducting grants and tax incentives? I think that should fall under revenues. As noted in the other thread where we spoke on this, exceeding $15m would be a concern unless its primarily production costs which will be offset by future cash receipts. The advertising budget really blew out a bit this qtr - not sure what that is going to but given the revenue growth not concerned.

    As an aside, 75 Engineers out of 95 total staff is something im happy to see. Australian's aren't known for Engineering prowess but the country overall is filled with highly capable and talented individuals. Where they would otherwise move overseas (EU/US) to captialize on their talents, its positive tat DRO is able to provide a leading edge opportunity for them to buy into. Noting that we had $1.6m inflow from limited recourse loans. I'd guessing then that the 9.5m shares issues to key staff (from the 24.5m issue recently) were issued at various strike prices averaging 16c. ZEPOs and Executive remuneration conversations not withstanding, I think we need to account for further dilution via share issuances to staff in lieu of inflating our wage expense AND to retain highly skilled and talented engineers. This is how small caps work - you take home less than you could at other big corporates with the expectation you'll benefit from the pie sales come the weekend.

    Gee wizz there's a lot to digest and think about!
 
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