NEU

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$21.27 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

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reggie78

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25/10/23

09:34

Post #: 70520978
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Originally posted by baldwidx: ↑

That is the part I find hard about valuing Neuren - just how quickly the numbers get absolutely crazy, presuming things go our way.

If the 4 2591 trials come back positive and if we go by previous results with Trofinetide, where P3 replicated P2 trials in terms of design and results, then I can't see why the SP would not hit $100 at an absolute minimum in any TO scenario given the market sizes - which does not include Fragile X. I know none of those assumptions are a given but I am happy personally with that assumption, providing P2 results come back positive.

From there, if Autism is genuinely in play as Hottod and others have alluded to, then I can't see why any BP would not happily pay $10b US for a company that has two drugs that are safe and effective (I have grown to really hate that term) and between them treat 5 autism spectrum disorders with the possibility of a 6th (Frag X), without even getting into tackling "Autism" as a standalone condition, notwithstanding the nuance in that diagnosis.

The paradigm shifts from why would you pay $10b to why wouldn't you pay $10b?

$100 seems absurd given where we are but when we were at $1, people were suggesting $10 was absurd and that they would happily accept a TO at circa $5-$7. Now people look at $100 and say its absurd and would happily accept a TO at circa $35-50.

I know its crazy and I regularly have to reality check both my pragmatism and my dreamy optimism BUT if the 4 P2 trials come back green, which in my mind suggests that they are likely to come back green in P3 even though that is very unscientific, the question I keep coming back to is - what price would a company pay for a drug that is an effective treatment for "Autism", and not just individual symptoms but a global treatment, bearing in mind Autism currently effects 1:36 people in the USA and roughly 1:100 globally.

Some have suggested $1000 and others have said it would basically become one of the most transformative drugs in history.

If things go right and go our way, its hard to see where they are wrong.

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I am with you, but given how the market values us today I don’t believe the market will add $80-$90 to the share price phase 2 trails being positive, happy to be proven wrong.

Shorter term BP offer $50 -$100 is more likely the way this will be achieved, if 2591 is the goods buying for $5-$10bn US is good for them and great for us!.

not long to waist now management lining up the ducks

NEU Price at posting: $11.30 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Last $21.27		Change 0.650(3.15%)		Mkt cap ! $2.718B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$20.84	$21.56	$20.76	$7.760M	364.5K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1378	$21.24

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$21.29	218	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	200	21.240
1	47	21.150
1	500	20.860
1	240	20.800
1	50	20.630

Price($)	Vol.	No.
21.300	12763	1
21.350	30	1
21.380	471	1
21.410	25	1
21.500	60	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

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