I've been doing a lot of work on this and I came to a number of $46 - $49m run rate by the end of June next year.
Admittedly a lot of this is placed in faith in what management has said and that I am actually right in my assumptions.
How did I get there
.If you look at the quarterly numbers we are close to $40m yearly run rate assuming we maintain the current projection
.The below all from there market presentation for the Quarter
Noting though that the last quarter historically is the strongest and the next two being weaker.
This is where faith in what management have stated comes into....
If you look at the below timeline the first 9 months are a cost to the business and no revenue is received:
Noting that a tier one client will generate at least $500K revenue per year.
At the last update they stated there are a number of these tier ones (including the big 4 bank) that have just got through that 9 month period and will now ramp up revenue.
I am assuming that number is 7 (going off the below) so assuming they bring in the bare minimum of what's classified a tier 1 client that gets you to $43.5m annual run rate (so looking at below).
They also stated they have a strong pipeline of tier 1 clients they are tendering for (including another big 4 bank) which they were confident on winning (hopefully they still are but not really sure it's been mentioned lately)
.So assuming they sign another 8 - 10 now that revenue will start flowing post June quarter next year.
That should be another $4 million of revenue at least.To me that gets m3 to the $46 - $49 m revenue target.Looking at the leading indicators
I only think these grow in this environment:Looking at the above you can only assume the organic pipeline is going to grow. The other factor is as the digital platform gets more and more traction so will the margins.
They also have looking at the 4C circa $12m in cash and no debt.You can understate how important that is in this environment.
In a world where they won't have to borrow to fund growth. I think people buying now will be pretty happy September next year.
They really stuffed up the last 12 months on so many fronts which has put the share price where it is. But stuff ups hopefully create opportunities.
We now cross our fingers and hope they deliver........
Sorry done from an iPhone so doubt graphs from presentation will come up
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