Have to agree with
@CyberBiotech and
@KainCarver looking at trading, this is one aggressive seller. And looking at the share registry and news, possibly a bitter ousted Director before the AGM (a SP risk I will gladly admit I did not foresee). I am foregoing other planned investments as I can and buying in at these levels too.
Sorry to correct you Hotdog, but I believe the manufacturing facility is at Murdoch Uni in WA, not in the US:
https://thewest.com.au/business/health/orthocell-translates-science-into-a-world-class-product-with-new-bio-manufacturing-facility-c-10768680The latest and recent 4C's and other data, showed that are already effectively operating that production (Striate and Remplir) on a positive cash flow basis - the present expenditure on R&D mainly to get Remplir to US mkt - and unlikely at even 30% capacity yet (I did analysis on other threads on that, but you can see it yourself as they only sold 5,482 Striate and 362 Remplir units in 4QFY2023 (6,500 probably not an unreasonable estimate for 1QFY2024 i.e. 26,000 yearly run rate of a last reported 100,000 yearly capacity).
Understandable that you and other investors (and indeed I) are over the constantly late trial results from these guys who are invariably tardy (the Remplir FDA 'de novo' dilly dallying for me a very valid company criticism), but
Kain did explain on the ATI vs Surgery results delay, that A) its a little out of OCC's hands and B) J&J get first dibs before they are revealed to the market.A lot of ASX investors on hundreds of negative free cash flow companies are wringing their hands right now trying to understand the crazy share price drops, such has been the magnitude of effect of the manic central bank money pump of 2020/21 and dramatic reversal of interest rates and that has massive effect on negative FCF companies funding costs and the often DCF based value modelling by the finance industry.
OCC likely escaped that because informed investors get it doesn't need a cash raise and that's its business outside of R&D expenditure (mainly to hopefully make a crap load more revenue on Remplir in the US in 2025) is already making positive cash inflows:
I think I put up my expectations in a previous post for 1QFY24 receipts at $927K on a thread previously, obviously cash flows sticky, but I certainly did not expect lowly $360K manufacturing costs?? I'd say the $2.3 million you say they invested on production facilities very much a good investment as yearly trailing cash receipts already $2.308 million!
Stock prices are short-term so painfully unpredictable (another stem cell company I own, today up +8% and I have no idea why) but these guys are finally doing commercially what they should have been doing in 2020 (were it not for COVID) and the reported figures show the business expanding soundly and finally as hoped for me. These are the receipts from the last few years. TYCS = Trailing yearly cash sales to get rid of the lumpiness of cash flow reporting.
The share price is a massive frustration for me like you, the underlying business for me however is not:
The blue bars reported qtrly cash receipts from 4C's; the yellow bars trailing yearly cash receipts; the royal blue line the % change on the latter - i.e. yearly trailing cash receipts growth on the up again. NB: On a yearly basis again, the company receipts are greater than the yearly costs....i.e. it appears to be already making a gross profit on the loose cash based reporting from the company.
(we are all bemused by this share price drop, so the running recap of actual Appendix 4C's might help ease the pain and frustration for you and other investors - this share price move does not reflect the underlying business in my opinion, and will surely be temporary if the business trends continue)
(20min delay)