hi
@cash hound, agree will all you say here. Gina's broker called me and offered $3 for the lot free of commission and quick payment. I declined, but even if I had predicted a $1.80CR I would have also declined. The main reasons were I didn't want to trigger massive CGT issues in this FY and I also figured that if Australia's wealthiest person was offering me $3 they would be worth a lot more in 2 years time. In other words both ALB's and Gina's interest was proof that KV was a white gold mine. I am thinking at least $5 plus dividends in 2 years and that is conservative, but I am in no hurry. Yes with the benefit of hindsight I could have sold and bought in again much lower, but there were too many moving parts for me then and I would still have to sell plenty of shares to pay large tax, so I stayed put. You have to make a decision to sell, hold or buy based on your circumstances and as I can afford to wait I decide to do what TG and Gina did, namely hold for the long term, that was good enough for me. Some others here who sold may have done the right thing for them, but Gina just bought in at $3 and her recent incursions in other lithium plays tells me a lot.
1. I think she views lithium as a long term replacement or at least parallel wealth provider to iron ore for her. She believes in its long term future and she is buying the best and most promising. "I want what she's having."
2. I believe she thought there was a strong chance that ALB would not walk away but would stay and deal with her as they need the KV resource. The extra week extension ALB requested was not to decide whether they would pull the bid, but instead whether to contact Gina and deal or walk and call her bluff. They didn't call her and walked, I suspect that surprised TG (and LTR's advisors) and Gina little. However ALB could be back some other time and don't discount that.
3. Meanwhile Gina was then a little unexpectedly left with time and money when ALB didn't call so she turned enthusiastically to the other play that interested her, Azure and SQM. We will see if SQM is happier to deal with Gina but as Azure's resource is not yet proven. fully assessed and funded with no mine plans or offtakes etc it is a very different proposition to the almost ready to mine KV. So SQM may be happy to have Gina onboard in the very early stages, or at least much more prepared to include her than ALB was. Let's see as it might create a blueprint for Gina and LTR and other partners going forward.
4. it is now very clear that Gina is after strategic investments in long term quality lithium resources. The financial press has worked this out and is all over this. This matches her approaches with iron ore and her other businesses and partnerships. This strongly indicates to me that she does not want to take over LTR either alone or in a JV. She would need to overcome TG's blocking stake anyway which she could only do if she paid a high price which is getting higher the closer we get to production and the more obvious there is going to be a lithium supply deficit and rising prices. So I think we can discount the option now that she will try and take us over. I believe she wants to go mining with us and extract dividends just as she does with all her other projects. This is good.
5. I suspect she will wait for the AGM and resolutions to be passed and then approach LTR to get on the board and offer some help and expertise. How LTR and TG reacts to that is unknown but as they say keep your friends close and your enemies closer. I prefer Gina or her representative on the board than not. That sends a message to the market and creates certainty. If she is on the Board she cannot launch or plan a take over or merger without full board knowledge and backing and she cannot short us. It also makes it very clear that she is with LTR for the long term capital appreciation and dividends and will promote that. I am now of the view that is exactly what she wants. She understands the true value of KV and how far we have come. Now fully funded and close to production. The recent SP performance is unpleasant to watch,so don't watch it I say. Ignore the frauds and downrampers who want you to sell and don't watch the price too much. I bet Gina isn't. Follow her example. There is no reason for the SP to come back up yet unless ALB returns, which is possible. It will be played with and keep low until closer to production. Provided we don't get any bad news such as a time or cost blowout LTR's profitability is a certainty and then watch the scramble to get in. At the moment uncertainty is ruling us and shorters and traders are playing us. If you are a LTH do not fear a thing, just follow TG and Gina and the fundamentals. Riches await or at least Gina appears to think so.
(20min delay)