ENR Weekly Report, page-9

Weekly Review REE Stocks - 27th Oct 2023

Here is the weekly review figures and charts that I do every week. It is useful only for those interested in trading or those who hold multiple shares and based on performance would like to keep re-balancing as we go. I do hold a number of REE stocks and like to trade. This is the reason I include a number of REE Stocks in my analysis.

Please note:
This is no reflection of all AU REE stocks as I have only included those that I am interested. In my list are shares that I hold, held before or planning to buy in near future. Since this is my list, I may have missed some good stocks. The averages are simple averages and not weighted averages. So the average don't reflect AU REE average. This is just for my tracking and analysis.
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Please note that all my analysis are from a trading perspective looking at short-term view.
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This list contains 26 REE related stocks and no new additions this week.
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How are we going in 2023 - General Markets

• SP 500 continued its down trend this week, losing another 100 points. Last week as well we lost around 100 points.
• We broke a key resistance of 4200 this week. Two key numbers being looked in - 4100, or somewhere between 4000/4050.
• If we go up, first key level identified now is 4250.
• We have lost over 10% from 4600 - so have met the criteria of correction of drop of over 10%
• Volatility Index VIX is over 21 - so we lost 20 which was significant for a bull market
• Markets are volatile, but somehow many bulls are still thinking we are testing some bottom before new highs
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What will happen next week - General Markets:

• US markets had another drop on Friday, so a soft opening on Monday for us
• Seasonally they say we bottom in October. If seasonality is to play, we may do a bottom soon, maybe sometime this week
• Markets in a very critical and fragile state - next week may set the tone for couple of months, so very significant week coming up
• Some signs in crack of economy - Banks, Housing in US, China, Inflation and now Wars suddenly gripped fears in minds of many
• Next week - PMI, Jobs data, Interest rate Decision, Earnings Report - all these can provide direction

What are the chances of bottoming here?:

• Mixed opinion by analysts, some feel we continue to drop or crash, but many now believe we may bottom, possibly even this week.
• Reasons we may bottom, mainly due to divergence and support:
• This whole rally started from levels at 4110/4140 - which is where we are now. So many feel we are testing back the support and could reverse from here
• Divergence between VIX and SP 500 around higher/lower marks
• Divergence between Smart money and SP 500 - Smart money making higher low, SP 500 lower low
• Signs that 10 year may be topping
• Signs that Dollar Index may be topping
• Divergence between Fear and Greed and SP 500 - Fear and Greed made higher low when SP 500 made lower low
• Fear and Greed Sentiment Indicator at 24 - Extreme Fear - many times we bottom after reaching Extreme Fear
• My feel - Probability wise I feel we may be bottoming. But the way markets play where anything can happen, we should not assume it, rather wait for it to play out that way. At this stage I am playing for this bottom to happen in next week or two but will adjust as it evolves

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Personally: My situation is slightly different to last week. 20% U stocks, 35% Li, 5% rest short play, 40% cash. Decreased some U stocks which seem to be in consolidation and bought some Li stocks. As I have been writing in last few weeks I was playing very big one Li stock. I had cautioned that its market cap is high, is volatile etc but I had a gut feel something inside is going on and even though market cap was very high, I kept on playing it. I have been very lucky there as that stock made 70% gain this week. Now market is very high, but I feel it may still have some legs as there are not many AUS Li stocks which look like real deal, and I feel some leaders in industry who want to play ASX Li will step up and take positions for future. So still playing there, but please dyor. Also bought a few smaller Li stocks which tested their bottom this week - not big positions, initially trying to play 30/50%, unless some of them have an announcement which is game changer, in which case I will continue to hold. Also watching Li space intently as feel bottom may be there soon - have few in mind which I want to hold in case Li sector reverse. For U stocks, I want to see next stage of play. Huge gains have been made in last 2 months, at one stage 90% of my portfolio was U. I feel its consolidation now. I am looking for signs that it can make another 30/50% in next 4 to 6 weeks, so waiting for that feel that it is ready to come. Currently 40% cash I have kept to see if we see markets bottom here, then I will quickly buy back without being very choosy - its important to be in when the uptrend is there.
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Stock/Sector specific Info:

• ENR gained this week, moving from 25.5 to 29. Volume was as usual. Some good buying this week, but still trading in a zone from 22.5 to 30 for last 4 weeks or so. A break to 30s would be good
• At this stage I have not yet bought back, watching to see if it holds here or a break out
• The REE sectors stocks I track is down 3% across 26 stocks for the year,
• This week across 26 stocks there was gain of 6% - so very good gains and a number of bigger stocks did very well
• Overall REE sector is not doing well, very few stocks in green for the year. Those more advanced, facing the tough realities of moving from develop to production, not so good - and this an indicator sector is not doing well - Over 60% of the stocks have lost close to 40/50% just this year. But WA1 did very well and LYC also seems to be coming out
• Any announcement can have an effect of sp - both up and down
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Here is the Figures for the Week:
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