Ann: Zijin Response, page-103

Zeuson


August, just wondering how much actual effect do ICC and ICSID rulings will have? Clearly the one about JV has been ignored. How will these courts rulings be enforced?


August V

Two great questions! For an answer to your first question, see my response to an AVZ grassroots shareholder here: https://x.com/AugustCohen4/status/1719003043117625575?s=20…

Now, to your 2nd question, its a little tricky.
Let's assume Paris awards AVZ a $1.7B damage award and, after suing in Washington DC's Circuit Court (which AVZ can do per the NY Convention Treaty), a DC Judge upholds that award (highly likely).

How does AVZ collect? Well, first it must do as Dig Oil did and try to work out a deal w/ the DRC gov't in place at that time.
Hopefully, that means resolving all the current issues But what if negotiations w/ DRC gov fail or stall?

Well, at that point AVZ can start getting aggressive.
It could go to any country where DRC has assets (property, financial accounts, etc) *and* where that country is a signatory to the New York Convention and have a judge in that country seize those assets until DRC pays OR works out a deal.

To be clear, this has happened before to DRC and if things don't get better w/ Dig Oil may happen again.

Hopefully, none of this will be necessary and DRC and AVZ will do an MOU that will work out all the issues.
But if AVZ goes for Plan B (win in Paris and then win in DC), this is generally how a judgement is enforced.

I hope this answers your question!


Ty Mitchell

Hi August thanks for your input, just a quick question,with your experience what do you see happening if it solely ends up in court


August V

AVZ has a very strong case in Paris.
And if it succeeds in its various cases there, I'm very confident a US judge will also rule in its favor.
To my knowledge, there has never been a case where a US Judge has issued a ruling that contravenes a Paris arbital ruling.
And, most critical to this particular case, there has never been a US Judge in this particular court district (District of Columbia) that has ruled in favor of DRC.

Indeed, it is quite possible the judge in two prior DRC cases (inc Dig Oil) will be the same judge here- Judge Leon (see link).
Leon has built expertise in Paris to DC arbital cases and is a by the law kinda judge. He does not care about politics or geopolitics.

I think the key is the award- or what AVZ asks Paris to award in terms of damages.
But that's getting into legal strategy and it's best I avoid that here.
But overall, AVZ shareholders should continue to trust the senior team's legal strategy.

I followed the Dig Oil case (as one of my partners in our Africa-focused PE firm was interested in it) and AVZ is avoiding some key mistakes Dig did NOT avoid which has made collecting their massive award a real challenge.

10:47 PM · Oct 30, 2023


ICSID is one of the five organizations of the World Bank Group, along with the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA).


WASHINGTON, March 29, 2023 — As part of the World Bank’s deepened engagement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the Board of Directors approved yesterday a $500 million Development Policy Operation (DPO) in support of critical economic governance reforms, together with a $400 million Girls’ Learning and Empowerment project that will strengthen the quality and access to secondary schools in DRC, with a special focus on keeping adolescent girls in school. Both projects are financed by the International Development Association (*IDA).


Something else to consider is the US aid to improve the rail corridor to Lobito.


The DRC just sent a ministerial team to Europe drumming up investment for their battery industry.

Do you think those guys went there just on a jolly?

When Felix went to China, with a lot of noise, to demand the billion dollars in payments China promised, but never made, Felix got the red carpet treatment with bells and whistles, followed by a lesson in Chinese diplomacy.
Felix went home empty handed and a lesson richer.
Probably got a French version of the red book on the way out.

Some South American countries followed Felix a couple of weeks later, they went home with billion dollars in aid.

What do you think went through Felix head during his flight home?

Let's get connected by the hip with this mob, or how can I spin this as a success back home?

Just a few things to consider.....