I totally understand the frustration as it makes everyone question their investment to some degree. However, I'm not sure what the media means by 'weak' demand when you have 50% YOY growth in EV battery deployment.
I suspect what happened was that the big panic buying spike to $80/kg, allowed all kinds of high-end cost curve production to come online including things like high cost lepidolite and sub 1% grade DSO ores from Africa. Everything was profitable. As the prices come down, the demand is still there but the supply from those sources will end due to costs (not to mention lack of investment capital in a hurting sector). So when will it find a bottom?
Who knows. We are currently at a level which was a bottom in May and which coincided with numerous high-cost producers shutting down in China. Some are actually sources like the low grade lepidolite and some DSO imports. However, some of those producers are high-cost independent spodumene converters, who make no profit on the current SC6 prices being imported into China. Them shutting down in turn reduces demand for spodumene, which then forces the miners to reduce their prices. This is why I think SC6 prices have been sliding too. Anyhow, we'll see. I'd like to think that the saviour in all of this is that 50% YOY growth in demand if it keeps up next year.
This is all speculation on the broader lithium sector front. On the company level front, we have a big line of valuation increasing catalysts lined up. We just need to see some success there from AGY to get the ball rolling especially on the plant performance.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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