Welcome to November. Some quick analysis of October Broker data + technical analysis of state of affairs (just a brain dump of what's in my head).
Month of October (1Oct > 31Oct) Broker data:- Bulk of monthly selling has been Ord Minnet (at 0.015).
- Euroz now buying (over course of Oct)
- Bulk of accumulation appears to be at 0.015 (for month of oct).
- Looking in the 'trades' column, you'll see Merrill Lynch with 525 trades (likely the algorithmic trading culprit - remember those $3 trades).
Technical Analysis: (continuation TA from this one: https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/general-thoughts.7495348/page-1444?post_id=70313940 )- This analysis is displayed over a
weekly timeframe (each candle is 1 week) - "when in doubt, zoom out".
- Capitulation/basing pattern occurred with a low of 0.012 (second week of Oct).
- Note the
3 triangles, pattern is nearly identical. The
MA (moving average line) is almost identical perfection - with the two red arrows indicating where we are in the chart currently (approx - imo).
-
Oscillator, indicating a slowing of the downward trend - and aligns nicely with earlier similar triangular patterns.
-
MACD - appears to be flattening out, and forming a higher high for the signal line (note the timeframes in Mid Oct 2022, June 2023, and the present moment). Clearly indicating a slowing of the downward trend (good time to accumulate - don't chase).
-
Stochs - can see we are approx at the bottom of the weekly stochastics (indicating we are closer to the bottom, than the top of the cycle).
While TA is 'crystal balling' with small caps - patterns don't lie. I fully expect this 3rd triangle to complete (over the next 4 weeks),
potentially coming back down to 0.012 / 0.013 (given we saw this deep retrace in the 1st triangle over May to September 2022 (close to a 5 month sell down). In saying that, everything is pointing towards having put in a bottom (ie, we are closer to the bottom, than the top). We also have heaps of catalysts to look forward to!
'Quick' Fundamental Analysis:As per most recent Euroz report, we've got some great catalysts on the horizon (screenshot below):
Given this info, we can see from the TA above that the charts are somewhat preparing for a WDS farm-in decision to be announced within the next 4-6 weeks (to complete that triangle). The 'potential' 1H CY2024 exploratory drill (within 8 months from now is very exciting). Sure, there are delays in the O&G industry - but so far we've checked every box.
Sentiment: Bullish & Patient
(20min delay)