2023-24 Harvest Updates, page-71

Thank you for the difficult question.

Consistent rainfall of a reasonable amount every couple of weeks in northwestern and western NSW as growers approach sowing time might be one trigger, as these areas can be the key to GNC's ability to experience substantial grain flows into its bunkers and silos, and eventually (assuming there's an exportable surplus) onto ships through Carrington (Newcastle) and Port Kembla NSW.

Grower optimism in planting more hectares than was the case for the winter 2023-24 crop might be another, but it's tied in with the above.

While they can be badly wrong, BOM and competitor forecasts for the medium term could be another.

Broker upgrades do not normally form part of my decision making, but it's likely there'll be a short term uplift in GNC's SP if it shortly announces what is perceived as a good dividend.

I like GNC as a company even though it is losing market share to on-farm storage and smaller rivals, but even with the crop insurance payout (in a bad year) it's hard to discount the negativity of an east coast drought.

I am conscious that some of GNC's assets (such as Port Kembla) also handle other commodities such as cement and IIRC timber, but while not to be sneezed at, these are sideshows compared to the granary.