BREAKOUT... NEXT STOP $13, page-103

Now I am going to correct myself! Reading further of today’s news, it seems ORG fell because Australian Super plans to vote no to the ORG takeover, and if they do, then the board’s recommendation of acceptance is unlikely to prevail.

So perhaps AGL did indeed fall because of the risk that the effect I described above won’t eventuate. That makes perfect sense to me. Still, it’s interesting to read the speculations of others here, that if the ORG deal fails, MCB might turn his attention to bidding for AGL, sending its shares higher.

I reckon they’ll conclude a deal for ORG, even if they have to again raise the price. And that we will still get an uplift in demand for AGL’s shares when the ORG folks get their money.

It’s curious that we seem to be speculating that AGL might benefit under BOTH scenarios. The only instance where it doesn’t benefit is if the ORG deal collapses AND MCB nevertheless shows no renewed interest in AGL. I guess that scenario got a bit more likely today, hence todays fall in AGL’s share price.