For, from the shortman website, PNR has about... $200k worth of shorts, so I don't see todays rise as anything to do with that.
Perhaps it was all the Bell Potter clients having to buy back in after today's announcement
Regarding your numbers, I am simply looking forward to them hitting approx. 8,300 ounces a month, which would seem them hit the 100k p.a mark.
That would give them revenue of around $300m, minus the $220-240m of costs (still too high, but.. hopefully as they bed down production, efficiencies can start to be found), upwards of $60-80m to pay off the debt and drill. This basically implies that once they reach 8,300 ounces a month, at current costs, their ASIC will be around $2150. Which... is not that far off their $1900 figure set not so long ago for FY24 (which now... I think has been pulled).
Then... again, lots has to occur before we get there, if PNR can start getting closer to 110k p.a, then the average cost will reduce again.
I seriously cannot stress how profitable Norseman would be in the right hands!
Over the longer term, PNRs original plan was to stick with a majority open pit ore (because it's relatively high grade), yet... PNR has basically planned for multiple U/G operations over the LOM (though the plan has changed). WGX has shown that a asset like Norseman could eventually focus 80-100% on U/G ore sources.... then at 1.1mtpa, with a grade of 4-4.5g/t, 135-55k p.a (with a larger plant, even more).
These 3 above mines once all U/G (Gladstone looks very likely to offer U/G potential, maybe even multiple lodes), could perhaps fill 50%+ of the plant, then mixed with high grade open pit.... well, as above, the project would become a very very profitable one. Yes, a lot more capex would be required, but... much of that has been spent at OK. A different company with enough capital could dramatically change Norsemans production profile. I mean, WGX plan to mine upwards of 600kt from 1 single U/G mine (their bluebird mine).
The DFS is worth a read for those with some idle time -
DFS NorsemanThere is so much more gold to be found.... it really does beggar belief why the whole asset sat still for so long (I can only guess that TULs largest shareholder wanted to just sit on it).
All that being said, PNR still sits with an E/V of around $230m AUD. DCN just finished it T/O from GMD and was paid 50% more.... yet their plant is idle, they have no real reserves and it does not have almost 5m ounces in MRE.
HC is the world over filled with T/O speculation, but... logically, if PNR was going to receive a low ball offer, it will be soon, otherwise any potential bidder must feel more comfortable waiting for operations to full stabilize and debt starting to be paid down.
@Joelstar agree with your post, but.. in the end, either you see value or you don't. Like Wassa I bought what I could at the lows to average down, because... I just know that Norseman has so much gold it's going to make whoever owns it money, assuming they eventually get the best in to mine it. Like Wassa, I was not feeling overly confident, but... with so few opportunities like Norseman in the sector in W.A, I am holding firm, even with my continued frustration at management. With the likes of SLR, RMS, EMR, CMM, GOR all sitting on some huge piles of cash, not investing it... seems... like a missed opportunity but I also know that the MDs have all survived very challenging times over the past 2 decades, the day's of T/O splurges are over.
@wassa - good post and totally agree, OK will be mined for a long time to come, let alone any of the U/G operations they bring online in the years to come.
I am still a little puzzled by the mine plan, but... I guess they went 'traditional', unlike BGL which focused almost totally on U/G. To be fair, the open pit grades are impressive and have to be minded! From my memory, I have seen 16-20k per month from the U/G, but... perhaps that was before they planned to develop the Star of Erin Lode? The table above implies they will mine around 200kt in Y3 (but over 400kt in Y5!), yet the development ore has been grading up to 5g/t, but... the open pit has not yet met reserves. The opportunity to fine tune this whole operation with the right amount of non-sustaining capex just seems so glaringly obvious.
Crazy to think how it all could have been done differently, more like BGL..... everything upfront, early before the plant is turned on.
Scotia looks to have approx 3 full years of production at say, 70-75k ounces, before they need to focus on other open pit sources, this... could be extended with another U/G ore source, but... I guess the debt has to be wiped away before anything major occurs (at least with PNR owning the asset).
I think the company, when it has time to breath, should refresh the whole mine plan, make it plain as day what the short to medium term mine plan is, capex expectations. I also hope they realise that until they declare commercial production, monthly updates are going to be important.
(20min delay)