I haven't posted on HC for a long time and am just catching up on the threads after travelling for a few weeks. I hold 600,000 shares, accumulated from 2018 to 2021, and I don't like the merger proposal at all. There seem to be very few synergies; a bigger orebody is not better, as TMT already has sufficient ore to be economic; the strategy for the combined entity is not clear; and TMT is clearly undervalued. I have never wanted to be an AVL shareholder and I don't want to be now. I will vote No.
The last few years have been frustrating with changes to approach and the backdrop of declining V prices, but VRFBs are about to change the market dynamics and TMT is close to a position of readiness to exploit that. This is not the time to get preoccupied with a merger, the benefit of which will not be clear until a full integration study has been done (and maybe not even then!). The best case outcome, as I see it, is an 18-month delay and then a new DFS which would have little improvement in economics. In the meantime, other sources of vanadium might meet the emerging market demand.
I really didn't like the patronising tone of the Transaction Update. The 26% indicating Yes are fine, but the 9% indicating No are discounted because the scheme booklet hasn't been published yet. And broadcasting to the entire market that the "No" submissions were copied and contained errors, what kind of a dumb cheap shot is that? It sounds like it was written by Sabine (who makes me want to vote No even more, with every one of its posts).
Figaro
TMT Price at posting:
23.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
