It is great to tell people what they want to hear but to state that China is driving the price down and in your opinion it has reached a bottom, is really irrelevant. The market will determine the Li price based on supply and demand. For the next two years the analysts predict that there will be a surplus of Li hence the low price on Li stocks generally. Yes, you said SYA has been smashed by 80% from its peak, I know of another company that has been smashed more than 50% from its peak (yes, LTR) - had it not been for the t/o offer, LTR price would be much lower than now. The shorters have done extremely well out of this stock. You have no idea of how much LTR will be able to sell its Li for, everything including the cost of extraction, is estimated - something that LTR has not been to good at recently (mine cost for instance). Add into that, the fact that the LTR mine will come online when the Li price is expected to be at its lowest point with oversupply. Yes, Li demand is going up exponentially, but at the moment supply is also coming online. In a couple of years, the Li price may well be higher than now, PLS may have their POSCO joint venture plant running and be at P1000, and have renegotiated their sell price for more than LTR are achieving assuming that everything goes to plan for LTR in commissioning of their plant. That is why the stock market is risky, if you listen to people on this forum you would have jumped in at $3 when everyone here was telling you they would not sell even at $7.
In my opinion, people buying at this level will most likely make money long term, there are still many risks, the obvious ones such as the problems in getting the mine running as well as global factors with the wars and inflation (high inflation means fewer cars sold) and technology factors (how are those NiCad batteries doing). Even factors such as improved efficiency or alternate tech say Sodium (so what if they their energy density is not good - not everyone wants high performance and long range. More people buying the cheap Sodium cars means less people buying Li cars). Unless another t/o happens, I for one, do want to get back into both PLS and LTR, but as far as LTR is concerned, it may have a bit more to drop, so happy to watch (it has been a really good stock for me, not as good as PLS but that is a timing thing).
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