@Davy Boy .... It's not hindsight after the event because they never told us the order of what they were doing beforehand...
From spud announcement on 21/9/23 .... "
Mukuyu-2 will test the primary target interval, the Triassic Upper Angwa formation, sitting approximately 450m updip from Mukuyu-1 where hydrocarbons were intersected, as shown in Figure 2. "
The primary target was the Upper Angwa where they knew we had hydrocarbons from drilling Mk1...
From 3/10/23 announcement .... "
Mukuyu-2 will test the primary target interval, the Triassic Upper Angwa formation, sitting approximately 450m updip from Mukuyu-1 where hydrocarbons were intersected, as shown in Figure 2. "
also ... "
The well will also penetrate multiple additional targets including ......... Lower Angwa."
10/10/23 ... "
Total background gas in this hole section, above the primary targets in the Upper Angwa, is higher than those observed in Mukuyu-1 and heavier hydrocarbons (C4 and C5) have been detected, providing further evidence of an active petroleum system in the basin. The presence of residual hydrocarbons is interpreted from wireline logs over an approximate 20m gross reservoir interval with quality properties in the upper Dande formation. "
20/10/23 ....."
Elevated mud gas peaks (up to 70 times above background gas baseline) have been observed while drilling to 2,582 mMD with marked increases from C1 to C5 compounds (methane, ethane, propane, butanes and pentanes). Elevated LWD resistivity and low Gamma Ray readings across this interval coincided with a drilling break and subsequent losses of drilling mud to the formation. Drilling progress was slowed due to repairs to the top drive system, which have now been completed and remedying of mud losses to the formation. Total background gas is higher than those observed in Mukuyu-1 and heavier hydrocarbons (C4 and C5) have been detected, providing further evidence of an active petroleum system in the basin. "
We started to have some minor problems, but kept going....
We had a bird in the hand, we went for the 2 in the bush, without explanation...
Testing the Lower Angwa was clearly NOT the primary target, the Upper Angwa was.. So why risk it unless they thought Upper Angwa not good enough, or getting cocky, or something else?
What was it that made the decision to go deeper into risky ground when it was not necessary for a discovery??
(20min delay)