Toyota axes hydrogen for a battery-powered future

Andrew English

Thu, November 30, 2023 at 6:00 AM GMT+11·9 min read

The shiny concepts on the Toyota and Lexus stands at this year’s Japan Mobility Show ranged from massive mono space luxury vehicles, to SUV crossovers and sleek coupe models, but they all had one thing in common – they were all battery-powered.

This wouldn’t be a surprise on any other manufacturer’s stand, but Toyota has, for decades, banged the drum for hydrogen power, pouring money and resources into fuelling its cars with the fuel cells. Successions of Krüger FCEV prototypes begat the Mirai, which, after the Honda Clarity (another company that has eschewed hydrogen for battery power) was the world’s most successful hydrogen saloon. Yet at a Toyota board level, the Mirai is now considered a failure.

The £63,500 Mirai has sold by the handful round the world and while there will be 500 on the streets of Paris during next year’s Olympics, this pioneering car has proved a financial disaster, barely recouping its costs let alone the towering cost of developing bespoke 700 bar hydrogen tanks, fuel cells and control systems.

No hydrogen success

Speaking at the show, Hiroki Nakajima, Toyota executive vice-president and chief technical officer, said that the Mirai hasn’t been a success at all. “We have already tried with the Mirai,” he says, “but unfortunately it has not been successful because of the hydrogen filling station point of view, there are few… So we have changed our strategy from passenger cars to commercials.”

The hydrogen industry initially described the introduction of hydrogen cars and trucks as being a “chicken-and-egg situation”. The chicken (refuelling infrastructure) was required as much as the eggs (fuel-cell vehicles) and both would have to be developed at the same time. They weren’t. Now the chicken has caused the demise of the egg.

Fuel-cell development will continue but Toyota now sees heavy haulage, marine, bus-and-coach and rail applications as a natural fit for the technology, though it retains a commitment to pickups and its hydrogen tie-in with BMW.

Nakajima says his fuel-cell packs will still be shaped and sized so they can be fitted to a passenger car should the need arise, and we were shown a series of shaped 10,000psi pressure tanks on which Toyota has been working. They are flat ones, which can be fitted in place of a battery in an electric vehicle, and saddle-shaped items, which sit either side of a propellor shaft in a rear drive car or pickup. Engineers say they are aiming at having just as long life as the current round items which, in Japan, is 15 years by law (though Toyota is pushing authorities to allow a longer life).

We also saw the prototypes of the latest third-generation fuel cell, which is now half the size of the previous unit that was the size of an airline carry-on case. It also has stainless steel separators instead of the old cell’s titanium ones, so it costs a lot less to manufacture. Overall, fuel-cell costs are said to be halved, with a 20 per cent greater cruising range (which means they’re more efficient) and a maintenance requirement reduced by 2.5 times.

New battery strategy

But at this year’s show, it was the battery strategy that Toyota was promoting. There’s a lot of ground to make up, as Toyota has lagged behind in battery technology for years, mistrusting lithium-ion chemistry and hoping the world would adopt its hybrid petrol-electric technology as an eco standard. Some might say that Toyota is entering the market just as its rivals are starting to question their headlong flight down the battery-electric route.

Nevertheless, Toyota claims that its new Gen-3 batteries will start to be introduced from 2026/2027 and will set new standards, giving longer driving range, faster charging and lower cost.

Lexus, the company’s luxury division will become an all-EV brand by 2030, while the Toyota marque will continue to offer a range of alternative drivetrain tech including hybrids and plug-in hybrids, but will be selling between 30 and 40 per cent EVs by 2030. Gazoo Racing will persevere with combustion engines but using CO2-free liquid fuels such as hydrogen and e-fuels.

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