Ann: Scheme Meeting Postponed, page-15

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Swiftballs

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01/12/23

18:29

Post #: 71226367
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Originally posted by nordesmic: ↑

I try not to over complicate it. Perseus holds all the aces. Silvercorp probably has put significant effort in already so might want to throw another improved scheme, but per what I said above, they are constrained. They might have a ceiling at 65-70 cents. Then Perseus come over the top in shares and cash.

One thing Perseus probably doesn't want is for this to drag on for months and months a la Cardinal. They want the project to move forward quickly ('an optimal and expedited pathway"). They want the ounces. Having another scheme meeting to nowhere on January 18 is a joke, and may be an attempt to force Perseus to place a formal competing offer. You'd think that Perseus were probably doing informal due diligence on the project since the Silvercorp offer in August (or since they canned Meyas Sands in May-June).

A JV might speed a deal up but I reckon Perseus would rather wait a few months instead of setting up a JV arrangement that would complicate ownership and seemingly deliver few benefits to Perseus (other than capex risk mgmt).

I like that this is happening in the backdrop of a rising gold price. It allows the companies to offer more from rising equity and get caught up in the FOMO like with Cardinal. Sometimes I think if the Cardinal dealings took place in 2021/2 rather than 2020 how much different the outcome would have been.

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The share price is whats confusing me the most.

Should be sitting around 60c.

PRU won't take long to show its hand and as you said they want to wrap this up quick time and start development ASAP.

PRU have a huge war chest. 1 Billion Cash and 300mil debt facility. They could come in with all cash offer of 80c not even offer shares and have enough change to build the mine and still pay dividends

ORR Price at posting: 50.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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