Testing the $8 mark today, it's already quite ugly, will it keeping going, or will the winds of fortune turn in our favour?
The bear case
Commodities falling
Significant uncertainty around Cosmos feasibility
Uncertainty around the ability to leverage the Greenbushes asset as the lowest cost producing mine as the junior partner.
Exclusion (potentially) from US cash due to involvement with a Chinese entity.
Price Target - $5-$6
The bull case
lower Lithium costs will keep Lithium batteries as the primary battery chemistry for longer, even at $1000US per tonne, Greenbushes would be generating significant cashflow for IGO, even more post expansion from 1.5 to 2.5Mt.
Cosmos comes online, the initial DFS was positive and there has been additional resources added since then. IGO brings a low cost mentality from Nova which helps keep the costs down
The exploration team is keeping busy and at a reduced valuation, any discovery will have an outsized impact.
Ivan comes onboard and "Makes a Difference"
Similar to Greenbushes the low prices will present good opportunities for those who can time the market well and have some cash in the bank.
Price Target - $9 -11
IGO Price at posting:
$8.03 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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