There's many elements to this CR and new project purchase to consider. I like the scale of the new tenements/project, but note that the current Bucko Lake mine PEA is unprofitable and high risk. The CR timeline gives a little bit of room to observe before retail need to make a decision to participate or not.
07/12 Pre-market - Results of institutional offer announcedThe major shareholders below are at risk of being diluted by ~25%
I'd want to see all major shareholders taking up their full entitlements. The issue I see here is that whilst the institutional offer may be fully subscribed, will the above holders take up their full entitlement or was there a shortfall that other instos have taken up (risk is that new instos are more inclined for a fast flip). Will SW disclose which instos participated to what level in the pre-market announcement or will retail need to wait until sub-notices are lodged?
07/12 Trading Hours - Record date closing at 5pmAllows a one-day retail pump when trading resumes. Retail will have some info about the insto raise.
12/12 Settlement of institutional offer
Do the instos wait for settlement prior to starting the clock on when they need to lodge sub-holder notices?
18/12 Last day to extend retail offer
If the retail offer date gets extended, then it's a given that the retail offer is a failure to some degree. The shares move into the shortfall pool for unloading at a later date (usually not at a time that retail will appreciate i.e. magically placed right before good news which halts the run of a good news announcement).
22/12 Retail offer results
Merry Xmas/Bah Humbug - retail shortfall announced.
Other potential red flags
1. "One-off option payment of C$1.1m (rebated from acquisition price)"
- yet the CR is for $10M. I'd say someone is skimming the fat off the top but it's more like the CR is 90% fat.
2. Red highlights above.
- If you need $2.5M to complete the DFS, and those funds won't be available until the CR is complete, pending no shortfall requiring filling/offloading/dumping at a later stage, do you really think the DFS will drop before Thursday let alone Xmas.
3a. " The dependence on third-party feed sources to fill the Ta Khoa Refinery has been a significant issue raised by potential joint venture partners and financiers."
- Ban Phuc LOM is an issue.
- Ban Phuc Ni output pa is an issue.
- Trafigura, which pretty much has access to a world-wide supply of Ni is an issue.
- An "option" to acquire Wabowden does not solve the above issues
3b. - An "option" to acquire Wabowden does not solve the above issues
- If Trafigura supply isn't good enough, then BSX will need to exercise the Wabowden deal (not merely have an option) before JV partners are happy with the Ni supply. Perhaps the JV partners help it along, but I wouldn't bank on it.
- "Cash payment of C$20 million (less option payment) and C$10 million in Blackstone shares upon closing;"
- If the JV partners want BSX to close the Wabowden deal prior to making an investment decision, then another CR for effectively ~$30M (cash and shares) plus SW fat is just around the corner.
- Speaking of SW fat, he's already given everyone a clue below:
- The Wabowden option is for 12 months. You'd hope it gets finalised sooner than that, but this feeds into more delays in the Refinery DFS and JV. Anyone confident that the Upstream DFS, due this month, will actually turn up on time?
4. Macro Environment/Go Woke Go Broke
- In the current market with inflation/costs through the roof and at least 6-12 months away from any reversal, imagine yourself as a car salesman. Sir, I have a brand new Tesla to sell you at an initial upfront cost that is $20K above the cost of an ICE car, but you can go fully woke and upgrade to a BSX #WokeNickel Tesla and pay an initial upfront cost that is $25K above the cost of an ICE car.
- CHN got absolutely destroyed on social media for their long term pricing of Ni etc. in their recent scoping study. BSX will need to put put out a DFS with only break-even and current spot valuations to avoid a similar fate.
- #WokeNickel may be a good long term play, but we are considering the merits of the current and future short term CRs on the BSX SP.
And finally - The retail "OMG a CR. I need to protect my % holding from dilution!" myth.
- I acknowledge that dilution affects SP, it affects SP movement relative to MC, MC movement affects company valuations.
- I also acknowledge that the only thing that makes you money is the SP being higher than your buy price (ignoring divvies).
- Unless you are in the T20 looking to get higher, preferably have hit the 5% sub holder level, and have a view to actually use your holding to influence the company through having a blocking stake in decision making, or looking to takeover the company, your % holding means jack sh!t.
- e.g. "Oh look at me, I have 1M shares in BSX" sounds impressive. Is it as impressive as saying "Oh look at me, I own 0.2109705% of BSX"? . But wait they are doing are CR and I now think I need to protect my % holding. "Should I try and maintain my 0.2109705% holding in the company by tipping in an extra $X or risk being diluted to a 0.161290323% holding"?. The real question should be "How much am I prepared to lose if I get this wrong?".
Play it however you want, but go in eyes wide open and questioning everything.
I'm more inclined to sit and wait for that DFS/JV detail to be revealed in the current market.
GLTAH - and remember "Everything is Awesome"
