I must say, My thoughts are leaning away from the swing trades and more toward the longer hold. I think is is always to consider the overall market conditions. We have been hit with some pretty unprecedented events in the last few years. We had covid, then the Ukraine war which cause an inflationary period resulting in an interest rate hiking period and big falls on the market particularly in the more speculative sector. I believe this drove these stocks deep into undervalued territory. To me this is a buying opportunity because you should never waste a crisis. When the pandemic happened, I looked to gold which was at slightly over US$1600 and drove all the way up to over US$2000... Opportunity in the right cycle. Now here we are and it seems that we are at the end of the rate hiking cycle and just before Christmas which tends to have it's own little cycle. IMU has been smashed down hard! There was a lot of hype around this stock, not totally unfounded but it probably wasn't in the right stage for the price it reached and fomo carried it too high, being overvalued it starts to come down, then other factors accelerate the decline into oversold territory and into a buying opportunity. Now consider the market makers view on this, they have the ability to manipulate the price and play it to their advantage. Unfortunately the wealthy rule the world, they don't care about interest rates, they don't have mortgages, their class decides monetary policy. So we sit here in oversold territory, clinical trials have progressed to larger cohorts and showing some very positive results, interest is building and is now being partially funded to expand... Biotech and healthcare seem to be a topic of interest now after experiencing a pandemic and numerous other things that have popped up, cancer has had the head seat at the table of health issues and immunotherapy has been a very hot topic.
Being a charting thread I'd better post some charts. I'll start with this one, it's a bit of a weird one that I put together, being an artist, this one is meant to represent a tide with some white foam, it is primarily meant to give you a very quick feel of how the tide is turning...
Onto something a bit more familiar, looking at a weekly chart in Heikin Ashi with SMAs of 20 (yellow), 50 (orange) and 200 (red)
and the MACD. Being a weekly chart, this is a medium to long term look, this is the first time in over a year that the price is above the 20sma and the MACD is yellow over red and opening up. Being an extremely lagging chart, all my MAs are upside down but you can see the 20 and 50sma flattening out and hopefully about to begin a climb to rearrange into the right order
Looking at my 1 day chart and looking for the Golden Cross, in the red circled areas the 50s are heading upwards toward the 200s and have spread for the first time in over a year, the 200s are yellow over orange and look like they are starting to open. Notice the volume here too, much larger volume even compared to the whole run up to the 60s all time high in the past. There was a positive reversal in the blue zones previously but the volume wasn't there either. I am usually cautious of a first golden cross after a big downtrend but the blue zone came close and the recent spike might have normally shown this under normal market conditions so I am feeling much less worried about that, I also factor in the FA that we have recently seen announced and the possibility of a Santa Clause run. If it is a true Golden Cross it will already be on it's way up when we have confirmation so I am pre-empting it here...
Looking shorter term on a 1 hour chart, it's looking like an ascending triangle, but the most significant thing I'm noticing is how tight the Bollinger Bands are at the end there, the tightest they've been since before the price spike. It feels like it is about to break one way or another, we're sitting just above the median at the close of trade today. The RSI is sitting at the mid point...
Probably just overthinking everything but it's feeling like it's about to pop. In one of my earlier posts today I did some comparisons to the beginning of the last bull run and the announcements around it. We are clearly in a more advanced stage now and I'm wondering if this time it won't be overhyped and not a too far forward thinking valuation......
It needs the data to make it a certainty, but it still feels very undervalued here and if there is data confirmation it will easily be multiples of where it is now. Will the market start to anticipate this beforehand? Perhaps it already has but that big foot is standing on it's head as it gets it's fill...
