TMT 0.00% 26.0¢ technology metals australia limited

Ann: TMT Investor Presentation December 2023 - Scheme Webinar, page-60

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  1. 212 Posts.
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    Lewis, for me your statement doesn't make sense, I'm sorry.  Someone with a foot in both camps actually has a greater potential to evaluate the situation in a more balanced mindset. That person stands to lose and win so there is less pressure to start with and less of an "us against them..." attitude, which this sadly seems to be the situation here, along with personal financial concerns understandably.

    For a long time there has been speculation that these two companies should merge. It makes absolute sense and for that event to promote these Australian companies to become a globally significant player - that is AUSTRALIAN - this is a golden opportunity for both companies and one that rarely ever comes around particularly where there are such compelling synergies. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying this will immediately propel the resulting business into stardom, there is a lot of work to get there yet and this remains a highly speculative investment for all shareholders - as it has always been for BOTH sets of investors!  That said though, the merger makes this new entity a far more palatable investment for financial backing and thus a faster path to production ultimately which will also be a faster path to shareholder growth.

    AVL has certainly built some great relationships with government, got some very handy grants and built relationships with businesses and potential offtake partners and along with VSUN who have been a driver in building the VRFB market here in Australia which is starting to gather speed. These are good assets and the vertical integration is certainly something TMT shareholders should be wanting a piece of. TMT have also built strong relationships with government, business and potential offtake partners and progressed through the approval processes very well. The fact that BOTH companies are debt free is certainly a rarity and again highlights this as a rare opportunity! Between the two there are more pieces to the puzzle now and externally others in this market will be taking note!

    The 12:1 share issue is not great I agree but sadly based on a share price of 27.6c (22c market) which is not a fair price over the life of the project either. For AVL neither is 2.2c a fair price over the life of that project. Their price should be in the 5c range (at least) but the global and local economies are not helping at all there and haven't helped for all of 2023, let alone since COVID!  Perhaps there will be some further negotiation on the merge rate, i really don't know.

    What we can do is break down the prices based on fair value. The only way i can do this is to use say Morningstar fair value for ease. For TMT that is 41c and for AVL that is 5c so that is an 8:1 ratio, which is worse but at least based on a common fair value calculation assessment by an impartial third party. Now that aside say you bought 100,000 TMT shares for 41c some time ago which would have cost $41,000. At 12:1 those shares turn into 1,200,000 AVL shares at, let’s say 2.2c (as long as it holds that until then of course) So to recover your $41,000 (which currently in TMT shares is worth only $22,000) the AVL share price will need to reach 3.42c to value at $41K.  Given the volumes encountered (10-100s of millions) when AVL has decent positive price action that is quickly achievable as a penny stock. If it gets back to the fair value 5cent mark then you are up $19,000! That could be within weeks if the market is right... Please don't get me wrong I'm not saying 12:1 is fair value - I'm just pointing out that it could be a quick recovery as an investment with a much larger and faster upside ultimately - UNLESS WE CUT OUR NOSES OFF DESPITE OUR FACE!

    What i do know is we as a group of shareholders need this to get across the line. If it doesn't then share prices will tank for all and delivery will be certainly delayed at best. Then watch the buzzards circle, takeovers not mergers might be on the menu and that would be a worse option - but that's mere conjecture - who knows really what will play out then? For some to say they are prepared to wait and see what happens is delving very deeply into risk that you may well not need to have taken on and certainly could avoid.

    All this is in my own opinion - make yours based on YOUR own analysis.

    My vote is a BIG YES!
 
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