Share
7,621 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 508
clock Created with Sketch.
12/12/23
08:56
Share
Originally posted by toly:
↑
I was able to make it up to Cairns last week and sailed out to Osprey reef for a bit of Scuba before heading back to Colorado. Australia is fortunate to have such a beautiful natural wonder and the trip allowed me to enjoy the reef and ponder my investment in Lynas. What I came up with is my 3 biggest reasons to own Lynas as an investment…Market Quite simply, Lynas cannot meet the demand for their RE products. Amanda has recently mentioned this and is acting accordingly. The recent shutdown is emblematic of Amanda’s aggressive expansion program making the LAMP more efficient while increasing capacity. Supply lines have been secured for critical customers and Amanda held back RE products to continue to have the ability to supply them. The RE market is rapidly growing and environmental opportunities should only escalate that market…Assets The total value of assets is also somewhat subjective but it will suffice to say that they are substantial and for the most part are company owned. This includes one of Amanda’s favorite topics, Mt Weld, the well developed and sustainable mine that provides the unprocessed ore to Kalgoorlie. The Kalgoorlie facility is coming on line just now and will be doing the cracking and leaching (C/L) the ore where is is preprocessed for shipping to the company owned LAMP (separation processing plant) in Malaysia… All of these assets are important and substantial but no reason is more important than the human side where Amanda places an extremely high value on integrity and loyalty. It was the IP and experience brought in from Malaysia that allow the completion and recent commissioning of Kalgoorlie. As those familiar with the commissioning of major projects on this scale, the results are pretty amazing. It was over budget and perhaps a bit delayed but its all paid for and behind us… The US venture, while important is not a major piece of the puzzle. I get the feeling the big prize is the one, two, three punch of the mine to Kalgoorlie then onto the back loading doc at LAMP….Australia The last reason is subjective, but with uncertain outside economic forces, Australia appears to be a solid place to keep assets. Most readers know that those of us in America face a turbulent political year and I question the USD’s strength through this process. There are a few currencies that might be a safer alternative to the USD, however in my opinion Australia is on stronger financial footing backed by tremendous amounts of critical materials which are impacting the global markets in many ways… At the end of the day there are many more reasons to invest in Lynas and most investors, doing their own DD, have a list of their own. I must admit that I still maintain my original position in Lynas and consider my shares as ownership in the company, more than an investment vehicle. My recent trip to Sydney for the AGM reiterated my DD that things are on an upward swing. In talking to some of the officers in the company it would seem that they are all pretty happy with progress in these challenging times… Lynas is a difficult company to understand and rapid growth has confused many long term investors. Then, there are those who have vision and see the potential of this company, realizing there is much more going on than meets the eye. It is Amanda’s vision and execution of a well defined business plan that has taken the company to where it is today. Perhaps we are just getting started…
Expand
Market yes the market will grow. you are correct but for the last 18 months it has been contracting. I t will probably only contract a little more but I think it will be at least 18 months longer before it rebounds strongly. No one has answered this question yet. Why are you holding now. There is a chance the SP could go up shortly but it is very tinny. The chance of it going down a $ or two is large. Why not sell and buy back in at a lower price. Is a lower price guaranteed? Absolutely not. The overwhelming odd are in favor of it just like when I told you to sell a dozen years ago at 24 and you held all the way down to sub AU $1.00 Gor you as an American this was worse since when Lynas was at 24 the exchange rate was over 1. today it is 0.66 Knocking another 35% % off your gains. Assets do you do any research before you talk? Current book value of Lynas is 2,163M See pg 58 of AR. Current market cap at a SP at a SP of 6.32 is 5,907 M. So the stock price right now is 2.7 times its assets. Normal for rapidly growing companies is 1.5 to 2. But Lyna Revenue and profits are declining rapidly Do you think it deserves to be on high side of this. And yes the 900M of cash is included but that has shrunk a lot in the last few Qs. Only stock sales which dilute you has kept it up. Australia yes it is a nice country doubt I will visit again. Even in business class it just takes too long. But what does that have to do with SP.. Here are a few charts all from data put out by Lynas that you should consider before you decide to hold. For H2 profits I subtract SAR from AR just makes it easer to understand. notice how much higher the cash is with stock sales and JARE loan forgiveness than when you look at just operations. You decide which is important to you. Slope is not what you would hope for KTProduction AL says 10.5 KT in Cal. 2024 . Can you find one thing she has said about dates, costs, or volumes that has ever been met. Go read the 2019 project plan starting with page 1 total cost of all projects Au500M paid for from operating cash flow. and find anything that came within 85% ~ 115% of what they said. KAL alone is now up to 750M and under capacity. Texas is over 3 years late on a 2.5 year schedule. They did Great in Q4 and made NEXT rates finally. If they held it into Q1 it would have been good news, they could not which indicates heroics, that rate was not a true rate. It is starting to look like they can achieve original name plate reliably, maybe,