$1 here we come, page-154

$1 is coming?……..so is Xmas!

there have been many posts saying many things will happen. Here are some views.

1, The current price does not represent fair value for the business if we’ll run or broken up. It reflects doubts about the current team and strategy and what amp will do with spare cash.
2. At this price you would think a BB would add shareholder value, but so far all BBs have lost us value. A capital return may be better value. Or acquisition.
3. Acquisition of AMP? I can see amp selling assets. Not the bank. Not the platform/wealth management product business. But selling off the adviser related business and then moving to limited advice tied to its WM product and platform. As well as NZ.
4. AMP could acquire in the WM space, but it would need to get anything at a bargain price. BT platform is not worth as much to amp as many think. While there are synergies, there is also a duplication in market share that would drop. The AXA acquisition showed the cost of this. Given amp’s cost of raising funds, I am not sure buying another bank is great value.
5. The reforms on advice are not as revolutionary to amp profit in its current form as people might think. The main advantage will be allowing amp to offer limited advice as a sales tool for its product.
6. It is hard to determine fair value until we get the latest complete data. Harder still to figure out share price as I believe a significant discount is being applied due to a lack of confidence in the board, Lexi and her team and the strategy. In short, they have not delivered and there is no evidence that they will deliver.