Pre-spud estimate for TNP and QPN, updated for today's change in working interests;
Some rough calcs;
TNP (previous 30%)
80M shares
A$1M cash after drilling costs
assume 10 M shares cap raising pre-spud
90M shares total (80M options not counted)
EV @ 14c is A$11M
Pre-spud risked estimate;
Low
122 MMBoe * 17.5% * 20% * A$10 barrel = A$43M
or 25c/share (170M shares FD)
High
163 MMBoe * 17.5% * 35% * A$10 barrel = A$100M or
58c/share (170M shares FD)
QPN
122 MMboe 163 MMboe
20 % Interest (previous 7.5%) 20-35% COS
US$0.45M to pay Pass.
Require ~A$2.5M in total.
902M Shares
Assume 150 M shares for pre-spud cap raising
Total
1052 M shares
EV @ 1.4c is ~A$13 M
Pre-spud risked estimate;
Low
122 MMBoe * 20 % * 20% * A$10 barrel = A$49M
or 3.1 c/share (1052 + 545M options = 1597M)
High
163 MMBoe * 20 % * 35% * A$10 barrel = A$114 M
or 7.2 c/share
The transfer of some interest from TNP to QPN today will take some pressure off TNP to cover funds to drill the amazon prospect. As the target is large with reasonable chance of success, any positive result will provide a material change to both QPN and TNP at their working interest levels. The above numbers are an estimate, market conditions, sentiment and major shareholder and broker support are all factors. Usually, watch for A$20M EV levels on high risk reward exploration companies, or +20c for TNP and upto 2c for QPN.
TNP Price at posting:
14.5¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
