So it looks like Macquarie changed its view from underperform (SP 10c) to outperform (25c) purely based on change of management and a new plan to realise value quicker. Waiting for STO to press the button on Dorado/Pavo etc was fraught with uncertainty and markets hate uncertainty. So STO was the only impediment to us realising an exciting future as these projects got going. I just question whether any potential buyer will have the same concerns about STO's time horizons and discount the price. Perhaps a discussion with Gallagher will be enlightening. He is clearly not in a hurry with plenty of new projects keeping STO busy for a few years. "FID ready" and "balanced portfolio" rang alarm bells for me. IMO STO will still be happy kicking Dorado etc down the road until it suits them. This will likely keep the lid on the SP. I would love to be a fly on the wall at Nero's first meeting with Gallagher. Nero management will go in all guns blazing. Perhaps the only concession STO might give is to agree to drill more holes in the exciting and under developed Bedout.
I would love to see 30c but it could have been worth much more if we had been producing now and drilling with the enormous cash flows from Dorado/Pavo. But such is life and the reality of the share market. My lesson from all of this after being around CVN since Thailand is to be able to control your own destiny. Sadly the rule around suppression of minority interest does not apply here but it should.
Let's hope Nero smashes it out of the park. They are lean and mean and look like they can mix it with the best.
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