5EA 3.13% 15.5¢ 5e advanced materials inc.

Ann: 5EA to Hold Shareholder Call, page-8

  1. 10,894 Posts.
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    This is the interview that JT did with D.A. Davidson (Investment Bank) in Sep 21, 2023
    https://wsw.com/webcast/dadco64/feam/1880221

    Noted that their head of Ops believed it would be able to achieve (with optimization) 9,000tpa Boric Acid and a few hundred tonnes of Lithium Carbonate.

    Now around the 15m mark they begin to address funding the project ... and JT talks about the "big reason strategically for 3 phases was around the ability to finance it" ... now keep in mind, he's saying this on Sep 21 to an Investment Banker (keeping a straight face).

    From the Sep Qtrly (filed with SEC Nov 9)
    https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001888654/000095017023062193/feam-20230930.htm
    we have this (and its exactly as it appears in the filing with the red underling)

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5831/5831505-29f4e37f53fc5cb552b79f823a21f6fb.jpg
    That's arrogance for you ..."an immaterial alleged breach of the Convertible Note agreement regarding a nonfinancial covenant"
    They then go on to highlight a financial covenant (see Note 7) that THEY KNOW THEY WILL BREACH in December,
    AND
    it is at this point in time that a "recapitalization plan" was being discussed with the lender and "other strategic investors".

    JT seems to think the 3 phase plan and DFS was met favorably by the market .. huh???
    Hate to see what a chart would look like had it been met "unfavorably" by the market

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5831/5831611-60fad83eaab65077b6a66d99e6c23479.jpg

    JT talks to Phase 1 requiring US$373M producing 90,000tpa of Boric Acid and 1,100tpa of Li2CO3 (and ouch has the spot market price of that crashed to earth). And that's a big big part of the problem (I think).

    The technical report ... the one that highlighted a capital payback in around 10 YEARS has this pricing

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5831/5831761-44c27009f974984a24187562c2c858ea.jpg


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5831/5831743-c36b0fdfe6081d32dc67d4bfec60c2be.jpg
    Took a quick look at spot China prices for Boric acid ~US$1,045/t and Li2CO3 (Technical Grade) about US$14,500
    CAVEAT ... DON'T KNOW IF CHINA PRICE is APPLICABLE

    But at those prices the revenue run rate is 90Kt BA = $94M and 1,00t Li2CO3 = US$16M and Total Revenue = ~US$110M

    Now that barely covers Opex.
    EBITDA becomes US$11.5M and Margin = 10.5%

    Not a project I would be allocating capital too

    Be very interesting to here what they say tomorrow
    Last edited by cmonaussie: 19/12/23
 
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