AEV 10.0% 1.1¢ avenira limited

Phosphates news, page-63

  1. 7,323 Posts.
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    I agree with your views re: forward looking market and investor sentiment (hopium etc).

    A prime example was the big SP run November 022 when AEV went to 0.034. At the time, reading through HC/Twitter, punters believed AEV's words re: DSO would be a very near-term development. And here we are now with the SP at 1/3 of those heady days.

    Has DSO been further de-risked since then? Certainly. But the biggest unknown is the BOA and the price customers are willing to pay. Based on the numbers in the DFS, I see a funding gap after the first 10kt. But... this can be bridged by higher prices than the DFS. The BOA and terms may provide clues.

    My entry is not based so much on the SP as it is on my perceived risk. If I have to pay up more after a BOA, then so be it. But for me, it's a better position than going early and ending up holding a lame duck. I've had plenty of those in the past.

    Do you assign any value to Yellow Phosphate and LFP projects? And if so, what is the value and how did you determine it. My background is finance so not too far removed from bean-counters.
 
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