LRS General Discussion, page-15778

Most of today’s action seemed to be one or a few parties sitting off screen between 10 and 11am and taking on all the volume which sellers were providing. Once the sellers exhausted there were a few great line wipes including 1.7m in one wipe of 25.5 and one wipe of 2.1m to take out 26. That’s roughly a $520k trade so definitely a big soph or fund.

It seems likely that the Sigma news is giving our SP a bit of a boost (even on a day like today when every other Li stock is red).

Given Sigma currently trades at 5.15bn AUD, you’d have to think any sale price would be between $6bn and $7bn AUD.

If this eventuates, it makes a very clear case that LRS ‘could’ be valued in this vicinity once (if) it achieves a successful cut over to production.

I say this on the basis that our DFS is likely to be based on eerily similar metrics to Sigma (our Opex and capex seem very similar based on PEA numbers), plus our likely ~85MT tonnage at DFS would be the same as Sigma.

Working in our advantage is that our spodumene may be cleaner and produce higher recoveries than Sigma plus our 63MT at Colina is all in a single pit.

So if you make some assumptions and say LRS could mirror Sigma’s mine for output and economics, then you can easily make a case that LRS In late 2026 could be capped around $5bn.

Working backwards, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for a DFS market cap to be around 40-50% of production value and there’s your $2bn cap (roughly 70 cents depending on future dilution).