weekend thread., page-62

Hi Robbbbbbb,

This is a bit big picture which I posted somewhere else regarding DJIA.

Epoch A: [01/12/1928 - 01/01/1943] Exponetial increasing and decreasing behaviour near 100

Epoch B: [01/01/1943 - 13/02/1964] Exponental growth toward around 800

Epoch C: [13/02/1964 - 01/01/1982] Horizontal fluctuations between 800 - 1000

Epoch D1 & D2: [01/01/1982 - 2000 crash] Exponential growth toward 10000

Epoch E: [1999 - 2010(?)] Horizontal fluctuations near 10000 [7K-14K?]

Epoch F: [After 2020(?)- ?] Exponential growth toward 100000 IMO.

N.B. :Dates are approximated

DJIA in log-linear scale to date


Fundametally, US, Japan and many european economy may have been very ugly so far. The market expects much more worse?
However, China, India, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, etc are healthy. Their manufacturing companies are starting busy again. China and India are now becoming a big consumer due to their improved incomes IMO. As far as I know, Korean electronic manufactures are again so busy to match demands.
From now on for 10 years, asian economy compensate stuffed US and many european economy. Therefore, the chart above may be a more feasible model IMO.
Personally, I don't expect a spectacular fall as in September 2000 because I don't see the last rally as a bubble. I may be wrong.
Maybe, buy and hold strategy will work very well after 2020 when US finds their own value and equilibrium point reasonably. Probably, China will lead the world economy at that time.

Futhermore, I suggest you compare Epoch C and E in % curve if you want to find a historic cyclic behaviour although I haven't tried yet. You may have a better picture of cyclic behaviour(???).

Regards,

petafemto