Excellent question. This is the sort of stuff that I would prefer to see in the forum. Question my math with an unemotional open mind with the view to potentially learning something that may be of use in your investing journey. And don't worry, we've all been there before, and I'm glad that
@Just4kicks helped me get through it when I had my little episode not that long ago with BSX. Prove me wrong and I'm happy to accept it, but it needs to be based on something verifiable beyond an MDs sales pitch or something that defies logical analysis.
Right, onto your question.
Part 1. SW used SMM pricing in the PFS (highlighted in yellow). That's where I actually came across the website for the first time. If that's the source for spot pricing that he is using, then that is the source that I will use for my math. Note: if SW starts shopping around his pricing source in the DFS, well that will tell me something that most holders won't like.
Part 2. Google searching. Pay attention to the little details in what your search engine shows up. The link that you included in your post has pricing dated 01 Jan 2023 (highlighted in red). Effectively, pricing data that is 12 months old, and pretty irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Kind of like looking at a SP from 12 months ago, so much would have happened with market moves, CRs etc that it doesn't hold too much value in my eyes.
Part 3. If you want to use that website for your calculations etc, then go for it. I haven't come across it before, but that doesn't mean that it is wrong. Here is your link with the latest pricing (highlighted in orange), note the date. Current pricing is ~40000 yuan lower, or ~30% lower than the link you provided.
https://www.mysteel.net/market-insights/battery-materials/5045981-daily-ternary-material-market-20231220-
Part 4. Why the pricing difference? I can't answer that. All I can say is that I will use the source that the company provides in important documents. I'd rather plan for downside risk and hope for upside, then plan for upside and ignore downside risk.
Use the forum for it's original purpose. Discuss, learn, question and not just ramp the stock your on
(definitely not directed personally at you AM27).
Part 5. Learning.
Now that BSX has a Canadian asset that looks like it may get some proper work done on it (Wabowden), BSX holders need to be aware of how Canadian Flow-Through shares work. I've explained it all on the AZL forum (not a holder and haven't been for 4+ years). The thread title to look for is:
Ann: Oversubscribed Placement Raises $16.5M at 30% Premium
I won't give you a direct link to my comments. DYOR will teach you more for going through it, but here's a hint. Start at the beginning of the thread and work your way through all the comments. Take note of the blatant rampers professing that this is a great raise with no basis provided, take note of the posters that claim to understand flow-through shares but provide no math, take note of the posters that claim they fully understand it and have "contacted management" to confirm it. Fight through the stupidity and one-eyed opinions of people such as ArgylePink, identify the Emmetts in the thread that isolate only a couple of words here and there that suit there narrative of "must ramp my stock", find my math/analysis and then question it. I got lucky when I first joined HC and found a few posters who challenged my thinking and who appeared to genuinely want to teach me, whether I liked the result or not. Consider me the same or put me on ignore, it doesn't bother me either way, but I unreservedly will call out the Emmett's on any thread regardless of whether I hold or not . Part of the reason for me posting is that it provides clarity and history of my thinking at the time, which may change as a company progresses through various hurdles. We all have different investment timeframes, risk tolerances, and ability to monitor the market.
Bring on the next question
@AM27. I welcome the challenge of researching further for my own personal development. The more knowledge I have the better. And best of luck with however you want to play BSX.
