monday meanderings

The SPI Daily chart has a lot going on at the moment, particularly seeing as I haven't done some serious analysis on it for a while....

Several things first.

Price is currently in the range as marked (ish) by the Black Horizontal lines.

from the start of this range at point marked 8 on price, we have had a series of lower highs and higher lows.

Bit hard to call a trend there.

The bestest current thing on this chart is the standard stochastic readings n their relationship to price when the indicator is in the overbought and oversold regions.

as marked, and this has been an ongoing thing, not post the fact.. divergence in the tiniest form occurs, betwicht stochastic and price, and then the indicator ducks back into the "nomal" region between the two extremes, holds, and price and oscillator change direction the oscillator makes its way back up to the opposite region, and then, quite charmingly gives an opposite signal and bada bing bada boom rinse repeat lovelyy.

Now I am a cynical so n so  (oooh fun yet valid repeat of phrase... ahem) n so I dont believethat something this efficacious will last forever, however I am willing to entertain the thought that it is kinda of helpful at the moment....

Going into the nitty gritty then, n how it relates to current price action....


Well glad you asked.

we've done the divergence in the oversold area, come back up and are now in the overbought area....

No opposite divergence yet though...

so, to get divergence there has to be another higher high from current.

So I is going to ASSUME that upside aint done yet.... just based on that.

But ummmmm note where current price level is... near the top of a recent historic range....

If nothing else I reckon this is disputed territory and as such the conclusions not the next bit of action is to me important.

here are some scenarios of bull and bear mindsets.

Bull... Look at the powa of that recent rally, look at that higher low (twice)

Bear... Top of range. larger picture downtrend fundamental toilets

time passes

Bull... BREAKOUT

Bear... False Breakout RETEST and FAIL, BOTTOM OF RANGE DOWNTREND

Bull... BREAKOUT RETEST... Correction... Broken down trendline, UPCHANNEL

You gets the drift....



;)