Sorry i didnt mean to be taken as literal in the context. I was trying to point out that it seems we dont actually know what our market opportunity is...company included.
But we do know that our current leaders have said plainly numerous times we will not replace dram, because it doesnt need to be....so i think it dangerous to play down the relevance of retention based on the saving grace of replacing dram because we know our speeds are faster.
We have gone from chasing a well defined problem and market with fast NVM being the proposition. Now imo it seems we have a fast Volatile memory. Yes we don't know the retention and yes I may be wrong, but as none of us know I'm taking a position. In my opinion the reason we haven't been told is not to preserve any competitive advantage, it's because the retention is so low at dram speeds to be almost negligible and in fact unlikely to deem us NVM.
So here we are with a product that is unsure of its place in the architecture given we are not really a hybrid of flash and dram.
We may be an equivalent to dram in many terms. Perhaps we are cheaper to manufacture, but is that of an order large enough to justify changing a whole industry, i dont know. Maybe so.
imo and it is a humble opinion, is we actually arent that differentiated in any dimension to be of much interest at 60nm and the current metrics. 20nm is the hail mary shot to see what happens to the metrics at those smaller sizes, and to get an idea of how much this area based mem could stack.
Perhaps if we are significantly faster in all aspects and orders of magnitude cheaper to produce and we can stack at that scale...perhaps then we knock dram off its perch.
So the haters to alternate opinions will opine...well if you aren't a believer why don't you sell.
1. There is significant risk here. Meaning significant potential also. I think at this stage we still have a slightly better than even shot of producing something of interest in the next PL.
2. Regardless of the above, this stock is a madsive pump and dump machine. Well orchestrated. So i see opportunity to still make coin.
Please dont crucify me for not believing everything im told by management at face value. I have been a long term holder of 4ds and had the dreams, but have been bitten by reality a few times.
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