NEU

2.50%

$15.59 neuren pharmaceuticals limited

Share Price, page-8739

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dduncan

75 Posts.

26/12/23

05:31

Post #: 71616677

Originally posted by fyffee: ↑
This is my latest iteration of the cash flow, including the conversion of USD revenue to AUD, and calculating a target share price for each year based on that year's net cash earnings.
FY: 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
1 Total Revenue $USm 134.350 241.688 368.188 423.781 706.250 757.781 1,001.656 1,393.969 2,019.563 2,097.563 2,121.563
2 $A m 197.574 355.423 541.452 623.208 1,038.603 1,114.384 1,473.024 2,049.954 2,969.945 3,084.651 3,119.945
3 less Costs: $m

4 Corporate & Staff 7.00 8.40 10.08 12.10 14.52 17.42 20.90 25.08 30.10 36.12 43.34
5 R&D 20.00 28.13 44.64 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00
6 Accumulated losses 70.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
7 Taxable Earnings: 99.69 318.89 486.73 561.11 974.09 1,046.97 1,402.12 1,974.87 2,889.85 2,998.53 3,026.60
8 less : income tax expense: 29.91 95.67 146.02 168.33 292.23 314.09 420.64 592.46 866.95 899.56 907.98
9 Net Profit after tax: 69.79 223.22 340.71 392.78 681.86 732.88 981.49 1,382.41 2,022.89 2,098.97 2,118.62
10 Net Cash Flow $m =

11 revenue - cash expenses 140.67 223.22 340.71 392.78 681.86 732.88 981.49 1,382.41 2,022.89 2,098.97 2,118.62
12

13 earnings per share: $1.08 $1.72 $2.62 $3.02 $5.25 $5.64 $7.55 $10.63 $15.56 $16.15 $16.30
14 PE multiple 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
15 target share price: $43 $69 $105 $121 $210 $226 $302 $425 $622 $646 $652
16

17 discount factor: 1.000 0.880 0.774 0.681 0.600 0.528 0.464 0.409 0.360 0.316 0.279
18 discounted cash flow 140.67 196.44 263.85 267.67 408.91 386.76 455.81 564.96 727.50 664.28 590.04
19

20 earnings per share: $1.08 $1.51 $2.03 $2.06 $3.15 $2.98 $3.51 $4.35 $5.60 $5.11 $4.54
21 PE multiple 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
22 target share price (disc'd): $43 $60 $81 $82 $126 $119 $140 $174 $224 $204 $182
Expand
Apologies fyffee, used wrong figures from last calc. From this earnings per share with calcs as detailed in my previous post, and the 12% Discount rate

Discount Rate Gordon Growth Model (GGM) GGM NPV Value Terminal Years %
1 12% .984 .082 .600 43.20%
2 10% $62.047 $21.747 $42.170 51.57%
3 6% $132.957 $70.040 $95.244 73.54%

Note at 12% we are close to current brokers value $32.

1		12%	.984	.082	.600	43.20%
2	10%	$62.047	$21.747	$42.170	51.57%
3	6%	$132.957	$70.040	$95.244	73.54%

Last edited by dduncan: 26/12/23

NEU Price at posting: $24.04 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held

4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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	FY:	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034
1	Total Revenue $USm	134.350	241.688	368.188	423.781	706.250	757.781	1,001.656	1,393.969	2,019.563	2,097.563	2,121.563
2	$A m	197.574	355.423	541.452	623.208	1,038.603	1,114.384	1,473.024	2,049.954	2,969.945	3,084.651	3,119.945
3	less Costs: $m
4	Corporate & Staff	7.00	8.40	10.08	12.10	14.52	17.42	20.90	25.08	30.10	36.12	43.34
5	R&D	20.00	28.13	44.64	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00
6	Accumulated losses	70.88	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Taxable Earnings:	99.69	318.89	486.73	561.11	974.09	1,046.97	1,402.12	1,974.87	2,889.85	2,998.53	3,026.60
8	less : income tax expense:	29.91	95.67	146.02	168.33	292.23	314.09	420.64	592.46	866.95	899.56	907.98
9	Net Profit after tax:	69.79	223.22	340.71	392.78	681.86	732.88	981.49	1,382.41	2,022.89	2,098.97	2,118.62
10	Net Cash Flow $m =
11	revenue - cash expenses	140.67	223.22	340.71	392.78	681.86	732.88	981.49	1,382.41	2,022.89	2,098.97	2,118.62
12
13	earnings per share:	$1.08	$1.72	$2.62	$3.02	$5.25	$5.64	$7.55	$10.63	$15.56	$16.15	$16.30
14	PE multiple	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
15	target share price:	$43	$69	$105	$121	$210	$226	$302	$425	$622	$646	$652
16
17	discount factor:	1.000	0.880	0.774	0.681	0.600	0.528	0.464	0.409	0.360	0.316	0.279
18	discounted cash flow	140.67	196.44	263.85	267.67	408.91	386.76	455.81	564.96	727.50	664.28	590.04
19
20	earnings per share:	$1.08	$1.51	$2.03	$2.06	$3.15	$2.98	$3.51	$4.35	$5.60	$5.11	$4.54
21	PE multiple	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
22	target share price (disc'd):	$43	$60	$81	$82	$126	$119	$140	$174	$224	$204	$182

Share Price, page-8739

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