PEV 7.89% 3.5¢ pepper residential securities trust no.28

before you get too excited..

  1. 149 Posts.
    There are significant differences between the resource under EPC1827 and MDL162.

    First of all, load http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100824/pdf/31s2ck7w9zy260.pdf back up and read the deal.

    Page 5, 6 and 7 are the most important.

    P7: Transaction Rationale - Acquisition is highly consistent with with Macarthur's current strategy and existing operations.. a big tick for large scale open cut coal mine.

    P5: Has a map of the intensively explored section of the block, ie where they intend to mine. Its highlight in yellow, about 2 - 3km from the border of EPC1827 to the border of extensive exploration, alot can happen in 2 - 3kms.
    P6: The third thing is the stripping ratio. They have somewhere between 60-137Mt semi hard coking coal with a stripping ratio of less of 15!
    As a comparison the Goonyella Riverside Mine expansion project (200kmish to the north) which is a mammoth of a project run by BMA has a stripping ratio of a tad over 21.5. (page 5, ratio is tonnes on tonnes so 400/18.5 http://www.bhpbilliton.com/bbContentRepository/Presentations/BHPBillitonBMAPart2.pdf)
    So macarthur are going to be pulling out the first 60Mt at over 30% less than it costs BMA in bulk earthworks.

    Now looking at EPC1827
    "Minserve Group Pty Ltd on behalf of PEV reviewed EPC 1827 in late 2009 and identified an exploration target of 45-65 million tonnes of underground, low volatile PCI/coking coal of export quality. The coal is present within the Aries Seam of the Rangal CoalMeasures atdepths likely to range from 300m to 400m."

    The first problem here, without even looking a the seam thickness, is the depth. There is no way in hell you can extract that using surface methods, and I'm yet too see macarthur move underground.

    Second problem is that with bituminous coal deeper than 200m will generally give you methane. Anything over gas at 6m3/t of coal and you have to start draining, which isnt too much of a problem, it just adds to the geological risk associated with underground mining.

    I cannot see macarthur, or anyone for that matter taking much interest in this lot.

    Having said that there might be other leases PEV lands/ has landed that show more promise, I havn't checked.
 
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